Drewry analysis explain how trade will be affected due to the many ultra large container vessels
According to Drewy Maritime, it is not just the formation of new alliances which will alter the landscape in the Asia-North Europe trade next year. The delivery of some 54 ships of at least 10,000 teu which we anticipate will be deployed in the trade between October 2014 and December 2015, will have a huge effect.
They may help to bring carriers much needed lower slot costs, but at the same time they could alter the supply-demand dynamics and with them – spot freight rates; affect other trade lanes via the resultant cascade and alter the competitive balance between the alliances themselves.
The major carriers are running a fine line at the moment between deploying their largest assets to cut costs and ruining the dynamics of their most important trade lane. Although volumes on the headhaul trade have been stronger than anticipated this year, carriers have been unable to stop the rate erosion, with weekly rates dropping over 50% from their highs of $2,800 per feu in early August to around $1,300 per feu by late October.
Sourcet: DrewryMaritime Research
