No respite likely from newbuilding cancellations
The threat of oversupply in container shipping will not be reduced by cancelled or delayed vessel orders this year, according to one analyst.
Research by Paris-based Alphaliner showed that the number of vessel orders cancelled or delayed would slip to pre-recession levels this year, following a dramatic increase in 2009 and 2010.
Of the 1.87 million teu of vessels on order towards the end of 2008 and due for delivery in 2009, only 57% were actually delivered.
This trend continued last year, with only 66% of the 2.09 million teu of vessels due for arrival actually delivered.
Alphaliner said this level of cancellations and deferrals would not continue in 2011, suggesting slippage levels would fall to around 5% – in line with historic levels.
“Some sources say a significant percentage of ships will not be delivered on time in 2011 and beyond,” it said.
“These assertions are wrong, as the [sources] use extrapolations based on the past three-year slippage average, which is distorted by the effect of the [financial] crisis and therefore not representative of the long-term trend.
“This leads to erroneous conclusions about the future supply-demand balance.”
Alphaliner pointed out that some of the previous non-deliveries were caused by cancellations at the peak of the crisis, mainly 2009 and early 2010. But there have been virtually no cancellations since June 2010, as the market recovered.
The few contracts that were cancelled after June 2010 were re-taken by other owners.
“Unlike the situation in 2009 and 2010, cancellations and deferrals will no longer play a significant part in reducing the level of new containership deliveries,” said the analyst.
“Cancellations have practically ceased since June 2010, and in any case, accounted for only 14% of the orderbook at the beginning of 2009.
“40% of the existing orderbook are contracts placed after 2009. Most of these are fully funded and the vessels ordered at attractive prices. Cancellations are, thus, unlikely.”
Source: IFW
