Tag: OPEC

EIA forecasts Brent crude oil spot prices, which averaged $79 per barrel in September, to average $81/b in Q4 2018, before falling to an average of $75/b in 2019. However, the effects of US withdrawal from JCPOA, re-imposition of sanctions on Iran, and potential response from OPEC pose uncertainty.

OPEC released its 2018 World Oil Outlook. Namely, all forms of energies will be required in the future, but oil will still be the fuel with the largest share in the energy mix. In addition, natural gas witnesses the largest demand growth in absolute terms, and renewables the largest growth in percentage terms.

OPEC expects a steady rise in US oil output, as it will gain momentum in the next five years. OPEC also expects the demand for its crude to reduce, in spite of an increasing appetite for energy driven by global economic expansion. The reduction in demand for OPEC crude is due to a strong non-OPEC supply in 2017–2023.

OPEC received about $567 billion in net oil export revenues in 2017, an increase of 29% from revenues in 2016. Increases in both crude oil prices and in net OPEC oil exports increased revenues in 2017, and EIA expects that revenues will continue to increase in 2018, according to EIA’s August Short-Term Energy Outlook.

Despite the fact that non-OPEC production will ensure supply to 2030, OPEC has to continue leveraging its available reserves. This is what Wood Mackenzie says, noting that OPEC will be the key to price recovery through 2040. It also expects crude and condensate production to reach around 11 million b/d in the mid to late-2020s.

Global petroleum inventories declined through 2017 and the first quarter of 2018, marking the end of an extended period of oversupply in global petroleum markets that began before the OPEC 2016 agreement to cut production, according to EIA's Short-Term Energy Outlook issued earlier this month.

Oil prices decreased on Thursday 3 of May, as a rise in US crude inventories and a record weekly US production was reported, This increase is opposing to the efforts made by OPEC to decrease supplies and tighten the market. The prices were reduced after a report by EIA, which showed that US crude inventories increase by 6.2 million barrels to 435.96 million barrels.

The World Bank expects oil prices to average $65 a barrel over 2018, increasing from $53 a barrel in 2017. This will be caused by strong demand from consumers and a simultaneous restraint by oil producers. Metals prices are expected to rise 9% in 2018, because of the same reasons. Prices for energy commodities, including oil, natural gas, and coal, will increase by 20% this year.

Loss-making freight rates shows that the tanker industry is currently battling. Overcapacity, weak ”trading demand” and weak OPEC output have put pressure on the conditions that usually boost long hauls, something that may result in extended losses into 2018.

Above Market Needs OPEC Tuesday disclosed that its members continue to pump oil at levels not seen since 2008 as the most recent production figures show the group's output rising to its highest level this year, leaving the market amply supplied.In its latest monthly market report, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries said its crude production was 32.964 million barrels a day in April, up 631,000 barrels a day from the previous month.The number, based on disclosures by OPEC members, is above market requirements, which the group pegs at just over 30 million barrels a day. The high production level indicates the group continues to act to dampen prices which have remained well above its ideal level of $100 a barrel for much of the year amid mounting tensions between the West and Iran, which have dented the Islamic Republic's oil exports.More recently, concerns over the global economy have overshadowed the risks presented by the loss of Iranian oil and sent prices plummeting, helped in part by ample production by OPEC members intended to offset declining Iranian exports.However, if prices continue to decline the group may face strong internal pressure from some members to reduce production levels, a subject that ...