Analysis by Moore Stephens
Overall confidence levels in the shipping industry rose to their highest level for more than three years over the three-month period to November 2013, according to the latest Shipping Confidence Survey from international accountant and shipping adviser Moore Stephens. There was encouraging news on freight rates, and evidence of an increased willingness to invest. But concern persists on overtonnaging, operating costs, and the cost of regulation.
In November 2013, the average confidence level expressed by respondents in the markets in which they operate was 6.1 on a scale of 1 (low) to 10 (high), compared to the 5.9 recorded in the previous survey in August 2013. This is the highest figure since the 6.2 recorded in August 2010. The survey was launched in May 2008 with a confidence rating of 6.8.
Despite the overall improvement in confidence, owners were the only category of individual respondent to post an increase this time, from 5.8 to 6.2, the highest figure recorded since May 2010. Confidence on the part of managers, however, was down from 6.2 to 6.1, while for charterers there was a drop from 6.3 to 5.7. Geographically, confidence was down in Asia (from 6.1 to 5.9) but up in Europe (from 5.9 to 6.1) and in North America, from 6.0 to 6.6.
The mood of optimism apparent in a number of responses was typified by the respondent who noted, “We clearly see an upswing in the markets when talking to various people at various locations in the last couple of months. There is, for the first time in a long while, a general feeling of optimism. Furthermore, the economic indicators, both small and large, all over the world, are pointing in the direction of recovery. We cannot expect it to reach the same levels as in 2007/2008, but a sustainable level of confidence is much better than skyrocketing markets because the higher you climb the lower you might fall.“
Another respondent pointed out, “The light we see at the end of the tunnel is not, as had been feared, a train coming towards us. We are quietly optimistic, with supply and demand seeming to come into balance, despite concerns over the amount of new orders being placed.“
One respondent emphasised, “A growing global economy, including the US and the EU, is crucial for an improved shipping market, and there are some good signs of that at the moment, which makes us hopeful for the future.” Another remarked, “We envisage the market growing in Asia, and in Brazil and Russia, typified by increasing imports of products for use in energy projects. We also see an increase in the use of gas as an alternative energy source, with many countries developing infrastructure and facilities to facilitate distribution.“
For more details, please visit Moore Stephens official website at:
