China’s pork output decreased by less than expected during this year’s first half, with the country facing a devastating disease outbreak. However, official data show conflicting figures regarding the size of the decline in the hog herd. This fact has also affected dry bulk shipping, with Chinese soybean imports expected to reduce to 84m tons in marketing year 2018-2019 and 83m tonnes in 2019-2020.
As Reuters reports citing figures from the National Bureau of Statistics, China produced 24.7 million tonnes of pork in the first six months of 2019, which is a decrease of 5.5% from 2018. This fall comes in the middle of a significant epidemic of African swine fever.
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Namely, China’s hog herd, which is the world’s largest, has decreased 15% from 2018, reaching 347.61 million head, as pigs die from the virus and farmers do not restock. However, figures from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs indicate that the herd has shrunk 25.8% in June, with the number of sows decreasing 26.7%. These numbers surprised analysts, as the pace of decline little changed from 5.2% in the first quarter.
On the other hand, some have questioned official data regarding China’s hog herd. In fact, four people who supply large farms said to Reuters that about half of China’s sows have either died from African swine fever or been slaughtered due to the disease.
What is more, the disease has also affected dry bulk shipping. According to BIMCO, it has led to an important amount of lost soya bean tonne-miles, especially from Brazil and the US. However, reefer containers may benefit from increased imports of pork, balancing the lost domestic production at an unchanged level of consumption.
In addition, according to a recent report by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), China’s soybean imports are expected to reduce to 84m tons in marketing year 2018-2019 and 83m tonnes in 2019-2020, in comparison to 94.1m tonnes in 2017-2018.
In the meantime, Chinese rapeseed imports from Canada could decrease by approximately 40% during the second half of 2018-2019, in comparison to the same period last year. Should this happens, it will be because of phytosanitary worries.
