What will the energy mix look like in 2035, compared with 2013 – in million tonnes of oil equivalent (Mtoe)?
Energy Outlook 2035 is not ‘a crystal ball’, rather a projection of broad future energy trends, according to BP’s chief economist, Spencer Dale. Presenting the Outlook for the first time since joining BP from the Bank of England in October 2014, Dale reveals what the publication has to say on current oil prices and changing world energy trade patterns.
By 2035 global energy consumption increases by 37% from today’s levels with virtually all (96%) the growth in non-OECD countries and more than half coming from India and China
Country and regional insights – Global
- World energy demand is projected to be 37% higher in 2035 with India and China accounting for half the growth. By sector, inputs to power generation account for nearly 60% of the growth
- Global energy intensity in 2035 is half of what it was in 1995 and 36% lower than 2013. However, global energy use per capita is projected to increase by 12%.
- The US becomes energy self-sufficient by 2021. And by 2035 could be exporting 9% of its total energy supply. Meanwhile, China overtakes the EU as the world’s largest importing country/region by 2025.
- Russia remains the largest net exporter of energy with net exports meeting 4% of world energy demand in 2035. Europe remains the largest importer of natural gas while China becomes the world’s largest oil importer.
- By 2035, over 70% of carbon emissions are produced from the non-OECD, although per capita emissions in the non-OECD are still less than half the OECD level. Total carbon emissions increase by 25%
- Renewables (including biofuels) account for 8% of total energy consumption in 2035, compared to just 3% today
- The fastest fuel growth is seen in renewables (6.3% p.a.). Nuclear (1.8% p.a.) and hydro-electric power (1.7% p.a.) grow faster than total energy. Among fossil fuels, natural gas grows the fastest (1.9% p.a.) with oil (0.8% p.a.) marginally ahead of coal (also 0.8% p.a, to one decimal place).
- Consumption of liquid fuels (oil, biofuels and other liquids) rises to 111 Mb/d by 2035, driven by non OECD transport and industry.
- The US, Russia and Saudi Arabia supply over a third of global liquids output to 2035. OPEC’s share of the global liquids market in 2035 is 40%, the same as in 2013
- Natural gas supply reaches nearly 500 Bcf/d by 2035, with the US accounting for nearly 25%. Increased usage in the power and industrial sectors account for over 80% of total demand growth.
- Coal demand growth in China and India combined is larger than global growth, more than making up for declines in the rest of the world. Jointly they account for 66% of total coal demand in 2035.
- China overtakes the US as the biggest nuclear producer with its share of the world total rising from 4% today to 30% in 2035.
Also read releated articles:
BP Energy Outlook 2035: Growing Gas and Shifting Flows
BP Energy Outlook 2035: A view from 2014
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