The COVID-19 outbreak is expected to have a longer and larger impact on imports at major US retail container ports than previously expected as factory shutdowns and travel restrictions in China continue to affect production, the Global Port Tracker report by the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates says.
The report comes as a separate NRF survey of members found that 40% of respondents said they are seeing disruptions to their supply chains from the virus and that another 26% expect to see disruptions as the situation continues.
US ports covered by Global Port Tracker handled 1.82 million TEUs in January, the latest month for which after-the-fact numbers are available. That was an increase of 5.7% from December but down 3.8% from unusually high numbers a year ago related to US tariffs on goods from China.
February was estimated at 1.42 million TEU, slightly above the 1.41 million TEU expected a month ago, but down 12.6% from last year and significantly less than the 1.54 million TEU forecast before COVID-19 began to affect on imports. March is expected at 1.32 million TEU, down 18.3%t from last year and less than the 1.46 million TEU expected last month or the 1.7 million TEU forecast before the virus.
As for April, which had not previously been expected to be affected, it is now forecast at 1.68 million TEU, down 3.5% from last year and lower than the 1.82 million TEU forecast last month.
In addition, the report calls for imports to jump to 2.02 million TEU in May, a 9.3% increase year-over-year, assuming that Chinese factories will have resumed most production by then and will be trying to make up for lower volume earlier. June is forecast at 1.97 million TEU, up by 9.6% year-over-year, and July is forecast at 2.03 million TEU, up by 3.3% percent year-over-year.
What is more, imports during 2019 totaled 21.6 million TEU, a 0.8% fall from 2018 amid the trade war but still the second-highest year on record. The first half of 2020 is forecast to total 10.23 million TEU, down 2.8% from the same period last year and below the 10.47 million TEU forecast a month ago.
There are still a lot of unknowns to fully determine the impact of the coronavirus on the supply chain. As factories in China continue to come back online, products are now flowing again. But there are still issues affecting cargo movement, including the availability of truck drivers to move cargo to Chinese ports. Retailers are working with both their suppliers and transportation providers to find paths forward to minimize disruption
NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold stated.
