A new report released by the Zero Emission Maritime Buyers Alliance (ZEMBA) and Lloyd’s Register Maritime Decarbonisation Hub found that e-fuel-powered shipping services are projected to be available for ZEMBA’s next tender.
Specifically, the report – which summarizes the findings from a request for information (RFI) that the two organizations co-ran earlier in 2024 – found sufficient predicted supply of both e-methanol and e-methanol-capable vessels in the container segment to support ZEMBA’s focus on e-fuel deployment. ZEMBA’s next tender is expected to launch in early 2025, with the aim to purchase the environmental attributes associated with e-fuel powered services starting in 2027.
The most common e-fuels under discussion for maritime applications include: e-hydrogen, e-ammonia, e-methanol, and e-methane. Both e-methanol (CH3OH) and e-methane (CH4) require a carbon source for production, usually in the form of CO2. The source of this CO2 is important for evaluating the lifecycle emissions (LCA) of a utilized e-fuel and ensuring other sustainability concerns—particularly around land use change associated with the carbon source—have been addressed. One potential production pathway is CO2 from Direct Air Capture (DAC) powered by renewable energy. However, the DAC market is nascent and other sources of CO2 may need to be utilized in the short-medium term. Sustainable, waste-based biogenic sources of carbon present an alternate pathway for the production of e-methanol or e-methane. E-ammonia has the advantage of being entirely carbon free, although concerns about potential N2O release and safety must be addressed before its wide-spread usage on vessels
To remind, ZEMBA successfully completed first tender in April 2024. Global carrier Hapag-Lloyd was the winner of the first tender and is supporting members to collectively avoid at least 82,000 metric tonnes of CO2e in 2025 and 2026.
ZEMBA was launched as a nonprofit membership organization in March 2023 by the Aspen Institute, Amazon, Patagonia, and Tchibo to fast-track commercial deployment of zero-emissions shipping services at scale. Since then, several companies have taken part in this initiative, encouraging others to join in order to influence the decarbonization trajectory of this essential industry. As Ingrid Irigoyen, President and CEO of ZEMBA, explains, “ZEMBA’s aim is to open the door to new and increasingly scalable solutions through each of our tender processes”
Rapid deployment of hydrogen-derived e-fuels this decade is crucial to ensure that the maritime sector gets on a 1.5 aligned pathway toward full decarbonization by 2050, at the latest.
…said Ingrid Irigoyen
Nearly 50 ship operators and fuel suppliers from around the world responded to the ZEMBA RFI, which was intended to assess the market readiness of commercial deployment of e-fuels in shipping.
“The results of the RFI offer a valuable glimpse into the emerging market for e-fuels and e-fuel-capable vessels,” said Dr Carlo Raucci, Director of Sustainable Fuels and Strategy at Lloyd’s Register Maritime Decarbonisation Hub.
Despite the current gap between e-fuel supply and vessel availability, it’s encouraging to see the potential for e-fuels to make a significant impact on the maritime sector.
…Dr. Carlo Raucci added.
- The majority of RFI respondents predicted that: commercial e-fuels deployment in the maritime sector would be feasible starting in 2027 and 2028, with limited deployment potentially as early as late 2026.
- However, in the next few years, the RFI results identified a mismatch in the supply of certain e-fuels and corresponding e-fuel capable vessels on a fuel-by-fuel basis.
- Containerships capable of operating on e-methane are already available now, but the RFI found no e-methane production projects post-final investment decision (FID).
- Conversely, e-ammonia production projects under construction appear to be sufficient to meet ZEMBA’s estimated demand, but the first e-ammonia-capable containerships are unlikely be on the water by 2027.
- The RFI suggests e-methanol is the most likely pathway for ZEMBA’s next tender because of alignment between sufficient projected e-methanol fuel production and e-methanol-capable containership vessels on the water in 2027.
- However, across fuel types, the report highlights that a significant number of e-fuel projects remain at pre-FID stage, casting doubt on whether those projects would begin production on their projected timelines and, related, if e-fuel-capable dual fuel vessels will actually run on e-fuels.