Xeneta analysis shows that ocean container shipping demand from China to North America and North Europe continued to break records in June as importers rushed to protect supply chains amid the global disruption caused by conflict in the Red Sea.
According to Xeneta, the latest data, released this week, shows 800 000 TEU (20ft equivalent container) were shipped from China to North Europe in June, which is the highest ever monthly figure on this trade. While the trade from China to North America did not set a new all-time high, it was still the highest volume of containers to have ever been shipped in the month of June at 1.36m TEU. This makes June 2024 the eighth highest month on record and is beaten only by the extraordinary volumes shipped at the height of Covid-19 pandemic disruption in late 2020 and 2021, Xeneta notes.
Conflict in the Red Sea has brought a major shift in the traditional seasonality of ocean supply chains, with concerned shippers rushing to import as many goods as they can earlier in the year.
… said Peter Sand, Xeneta Chief Analyst, adding that shippers assessed the impact of the Red Sea conflict on ocean supply chains and are not prepared to take the risk of repeating the chaos of the pandemic years – meaning we have seen record-breaking volumes on major fronthaul trades out of China ahead of the traditional peak season in Q3.
Correlation between record volumes and rising freight rates
The record volumes in June coincided with spiralling average spot rates on trades from the Far East to the US and North Europe. Xeneta data shows spot rates into the US West Coast and US East Coast increased by 144% and 139% respectively between 30 April and 1 July. Spot rates increased by 166% into North Europe during the same period.
Sand stated that shippers wanted to protect their supply chains, which came with a heavy price tag. He mentioned that the massive volumes shipped in May and June contributed to the severe congestion observed at ports in Asia and the dramatic spike in rates.
He added that those shippers who rushed their imports likely spent more than they had intended, but they clearly felt it was a price worth paying to reduce the level of risk in their supply chains later in the year. Sand noted that shippers had been importing Christmas goods as early as May because, in his view, hindsight was a luxury they did not possess and immediate action was necessary.
Demand may have peaked
There are signs that the record-levels of demand for container shipping from China to North America and North Europe may have peaked.
Average spot rates from the Far East to US West Coast and East Coast are now softening, having fallen by 17% and 3.2% respectively since 1 July. Average spot rates from the Far East to North Europe have held a little stronger, but have now fallen slightly by 1.6% since 31 July.
According to Sand, there is a clear correlation between record-breaking volumes and spot market developments on the major trades from China to North America and Northern Europe. He suggested that if spot rates are softening in August, it indicates that the peak in demand for ocean container shipping has likely already occurred, and volumes should be lower in July and August during what is typically considered the peak season.
