According to the latest weekly report by Xclusiv Shipbrokers, fleet age dynamics reveal notable shifts in the bulk carrier and tanker sectors.
Bulk carrier age trends
Turning into 2025, vessels have added one year to their age, significantly altering the current discussion around fleet age groups. As of January 2025, the current bulk carrier fleet stands at 14,109 vessels (≥ 10,000 DWT). 1,856 vessels (13% of the total bulk carrier fleet) are aged 21 years or older, a 12% increase compared to the same period in 2024.
The 16-20-year-old age group comprises 2,269 vessels (16% of the total bulk carrier fleet), a 29% increase compared to January 2024. Regarding modern vessels (0-5 years old), no significant change was observed. While approximately 500 bulk carriers joined the active fleet in 2024, around 448 vessels built in 2019 transitioned into the 6-10-year-old age group.
One of the most aged sectors is the Handysize sector, with an average age of 13.5 years. Currently, 15% of the total Handysize fleet, comprising 426 ships, is 21 years or older, while only 260 vessels are on order.
Tanker fleet age dynamics
The current tanker fleet, comprising 7,674 vessels (≥ 10,000 DWT), includes 1,401 vessels (18% of the total tanker fleet) that are 21 years or older, representing a 12% increase compared to the same period in 2024.
The 16-20-year-old age group comprises 2,232 vessels, constituting 29% of the total tanker fleet, reflecting a 13% increase from January 2024. In contrast, modern vessels (0-5 years old) account for only 13% of the tanker fleet, with 1,007 vessels in this category.
The MR1 sector is significantly aged, boasting an average age of 17.1 years. A concerning 34% of the 826-ship fleet is 21 years or older, while the order book for new MR1 vessels remains relatively small at 63 ships.
The Panamax/LR1 segment follows, with an average age of 15.8 years. Notably, 16% of the 468-ship fleet is 21 years or older, while the order book for new Panamax/LR1 vessels stands at 69 vessels.
The Aframax/LR2 sector also exhibits significant age, with an average age of 13.6 years. A significant share of the Aframax/LR2 fleet, 17% of the 468 ships, is over 21 years old, while 225 new vessels are currently on order.
China’s dominance in global shipbuilding
Remaining on the fleet front, following the recent findings by the U.S. Trade Representative regarding China’s dominance in the maritime sector under the Trump administration, the next policy decisions will be highly consequential. Current fleet statistics solidify China’s leading role in global shipbuilding.
Chinese shipyards currently possess a substantial share of the existing global fleet above 10,000 DWT, encompassing 47% of cargo ships, 24% of tankers, 35% of container ships, and 14% of gas carriers. This dominance is further amplified by order book statistics. Chinese yards have secured a commanding 70% of cargo ship orders, 68% of tanker orders, and 75% of container ship orders, pointing toward a continued consolidation of their market position.
Potential challenges to China’s shipping dominance
There are rumors that the new U.S. administration will try to restrict China’s shipping dominance through various means, including sanctions toward Chinese-made vessels and shipyards. However, potential U.S. interventions face several practical challenges.
Any ban on Chinese-built vessels would significantly disrupt global shipping markets and potentially impact U.S. export competitiveness through higher freight rates. Moreover, many Chinese-built vessels are owned by Western interests, complicating any restrictive measures.
The global maritime industry’s current need for shipyard capacity, particularly for retrofitting existing vessels and building new environmentally compliant ships, also makes aggressive action against Chinese yards problematic.
