18 I SAFETY4SEA Log I March 2024 I ISSUE 90 safety4sea.com ARTICLE China and lower demand in Europe helped balance the global gas market during 2023. #3 Rising global demand for LNG expected to keep pace with new supply • In the medium term, latent demand for LNG – especially in Asia – is set to consume new supply that is expected to come onto the market in the second half of the 2020s. • To offset falling domestic gas production in South-east Asia, significant infrastructure investment will be needed to access the LNG that these countries need for their economic development. Over the following decade, deSHELL LNG OUTLOOK 2024: GLOBAL LNG DEMAND TO RISE MORE THAN 50% BY 2040 At a glance #1 Industry, heating and emerging Asia to drive LNG demand growth • Demand for natural gas has peaked in some regions and globally is set to peak after 2040. • The global LNG market will continue growing into the 2040s, mostly driven by China’s industrial decarbonisation and strengthening demand in other Asian countries. #2 Gas prices more stable in 2023 but volatility lingered in a tight market • Global trade in LNG expanded slightly in 2023, with tight supplies constraining growth and prices staying above historic averages. • A milder winter, high gas storage levels, modest economic recovery in Shell expects global LNG demand to grow beyond 2040, driven by industrial demand in China and economic development in South Asia and South-east Asia. Global demand for liquefied natural gas (LNG) is estimated to rise by more than 50% by 2040, as industrial coal-to-gas switching gathers pace in China and South Asian and South-east Asian countries use more LNG to support their economic growth, according to Shell’s LNG Outlook 2024. Global trade in LNG reached 404 million tonnes in 2023, up from 397 million tonnes in 2022, with tight supplies of LNG constraining growth while maintaining prices and price volatility above historic averages. Demand for natural gas has already peaked in some regions but continues to rise globally, with LNG demand expected to reach around 625-685 million tonnes a year in 2040, according to the latest industry estimates.
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