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ISSUE 90 I March 2024 I SAFETY4SEA Log I 3 safety4sea.com The crisis in the Red Sea is reshaping the worlds’ trade routes, adding extra hurdles to the existing geopolitical and climate-related challenges. So far, the impact has been profound and far-reaching not only from a security perspective but also from a sustainability. The urgent need to reroute ships presents a critical dilemma, particularly as it intersects with the European Union’s Emissions Trading System (ETS), complicating cargo shippers' responses and raising questions about potential emissions increases. The magnitude of these disruptions on emissions and their implications for corporate sustainability goals will depend on how much longer the issue persists. In this edition, we provide latest updates of the situation, alongside insightful opinion pieces from experts highlighting the challenges of maritime decarbonization. As the industry faces ambitious targets and tight deadlines, it is imperative to assess the trajectory of our actions. Additionally, we delve into articles on human performance, featuring an infographic on burnout that underscores the importance of maintaining a healthy balance between professional and personal life. Exploring how ergonomics can enhance the workplace and the significance of effective management sets the tone for improving overall well-being. For further updates, please visit safety4sea.com and our dedicated events portal at events.safety4sea.com. Apostolos Belokas Founder & Managing Editor, SAFETY4SEA [email protected] Apostolos Belokas @ApoBelokas Editorial CONTENTS SAFETY4SEA is Fostering Sustainable Shipping for more than 12 years, hosting the leading safety4sea.com, producing monthly magazines & special publications (100k p.a. circulation onboard & ashore), along with e-mail, video & social media, and delivering SAFETY4SEA, GREEN4SEA, SMART4SEA, CAREER4SEA & Crew Welfare Week Forums & Awards. INTERVIEWS 10. UK Club: Digitization plays a pivotal role in enhancing fire safety onboard OPINIONS 22. Unlocking Human Performance: Key areas to focus on 32. Decarbonization: A Risk and Insurance Perspective 40. Putting humans at the center of maritime operations 44. Sailing into the future: Smart shipping and new technologies 46. The journey of digital in shipping: Key milestones ARTICLES 8. Red Sea shipping: An ongoing tale of attacks and countermeasures 18. Shell LNG Outlook 2024: Global LNG demand to rise more than 50% by 2040 20. How ships can reduce Underwater Radiated Noise 30. Equasis data on world’s merchant fleet: Where we stand 37. Navigating the Future: Challenges and opportunities that young generation brings 49. The illusion of certainty: The concept of WYSIATI EVENT COVERAGE 42. 2024 SAFETY4SEA Limassol Forum: Cultivating maritime skills today, to bloom in the future INFOGRAPHICS 12. Stay SEAFiT: How to prevent burnout before it strikes 24. Be here and now: How to improve situational awareness on board 34. RISK4SEA: Singapore PSC Scorecard (CY2023) COLUMNS 4. Highlights 16. Green News 27. Safety News 53. Career paths 54. Maritime health 56. Alerts 58. Safety digest 60. Video review 62. Book review 63. Reports 65. Regulatory Update 66. Crossword In this issue
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The human body possesses innate mechanisms for self-repair and rejuvenation. Therefore, when experiencing symptoms of burnout such as persistent fatigue and emotional detachment from work, it serves as a sign that the demands on your body exceed its ability to keep up. Giving your body what it needs is the foundation of burnout prevention. By focusing on three fundamental pillars -adequate sleep, nourishment, and physical activity- one can effectively mitigate the depletion of vital energy associated with burnout and promote the body's restoration. 3 dimensions How to prevent burnout before it strikes feelings of energy depletion or exhaustion; increased mental distance from one’s job, or feelings of negativism or cynicism related to one's job; and reduced professional efficacy. 1. 2. 3. Did you know? Burn-out is an "occupational phenomenon’’ and is not classified as a medical condition. According to World Health Organization, burn-out is a syndrome conceptualized as resulting from chronic workplace stress that has not been successfully managed. It is characterized by:
Avoid burnout before you’re already burned out; prolonged job stress may cause burnout, chronic fatigue, low retention and increased errors! seafit.safety4sea.com PREVENTATIVE MEASURES FOR MARITIME ORGANIZATIONS Set clear and consistent goals for employees Provide frequent training to increase role effectiveness and coping strategies Foster social interaction Include employees in decision-making processes Eliminate unnecessary rules / procedures / checklists Optimize shift lengths to avoid fatigue Promote mental health days and initiatives Ask for employee feedback Make use of mentoring Invest in ergonomics to a comfortable working environment
18 I SAFETY4SEA Log I March 2024 I ISSUE 90 safety4sea.com ARTICLE China and lower demand in Europe helped balance the global gas market during 2023. #3 Rising global demand for LNG expected to keep pace with new supply • In the medium term, latent demand for LNG – especially in Asia – is set to consume new supply that is expected to come onto the market in the second half of the 2020s. • To offset falling domestic gas production in South-east Asia, significant infrastructure investment will be needed to access the LNG that these countries need for their economic development. Over the following decade, deSHELL LNG OUTLOOK 2024: GLOBAL LNG DEMAND TO RISE MORE THAN 50% BY 2040 At a glance #1 Industry, heating and emerging Asia to drive LNG demand growth • Demand for natural gas has peaked in some regions and globally is set to peak after 2040. • The global LNG market will continue growing into the 2040s, mostly driven by China’s industrial decarbonisation and strengthening demand in other Asian countries. #2 Gas prices more stable in 2023 but volatility lingered in a tight market • Global trade in LNG expanded slightly in 2023, with tight supplies constraining growth and prices staying above historic averages. • A milder winter, high gas storage levels, modest economic recovery in Shell expects global LNG demand to grow beyond 2040, driven by industrial demand in China and economic development in South Asia and South-east Asia. Global demand for liquefied natural gas (LNG) is estimated to rise by more than 50% by 2040, as industrial coal-to-gas switching gathers pace in China and South Asian and South-east Asian countries use more LNG to support their economic growth, according to Shell’s LNG Outlook 2024. Global trade in LNG reached 404 million tonnes in 2023, up from 397 million tonnes in 2022, with tight supplies of LNG constraining growth while maintaining prices and price volatility above historic averages. Demand for natural gas has already peaked in some regions but continues to rise globally, with LNG demand expected to reach around 625-685 million tonnes a year in 2040, according to the latest industry estimates.
ISSUE 90 I March 2024 I SAFETY4SEA Log I 19 safety4sea.com ARTICLE helping to improve security of energy supplies. European LNG imports remained at similar levels to 2022, despite an overall decline in European gas demand in 2023. Relatively mild winter temperatures in countries that rely on gas for heating, combined with high gas storage levels, stronger nuclear power generation and a modest economic recovery in China, all helped balance the global gas market in 2023. This helped bring down and stabilise gas prices in the key importing regions of Europe and East Asia compared to the record highs and unprecedented volatility seen from late 2021 through 2022. However, gas prices and volatility remained significantly higher in 2023 than in the 2017-2020 period. Despite a well-supplied global market in 2023, the lack of Russian pipeline gas supply to Europe and a limited amount of LNG supply growth over the last year mean that the global gas market remains structurally tight. clining domestic gas production in parts of South Asia and South-east Asia could drive a surge in demand for LNG as these economies increasingly need fuel for gas-fired power plants or industry. However, countries in South Asia and South-east Asia would need significant investments in gas import infrastructure. The Shell LNG Outlook 2024 shows that gas complements wind and solar power in countries with high levels of renewables in their power generation mix, providing shortterm flexibility and long-term security of supply. “China is likely to dominate LNG demand growth this decade as its industry seeks to cut carbon emissions by switching from coal to gas. With China’s coal-based steel sector accounting for more emissions than the total emissions of the UK, Germany and Turkey combined, gas has an essential role to play in tackling one of the world’s biggest sources of carbon emissions and local air pollution.”, said Steve Hill, Executive Vice President for Shell Energy. LNG continued to play a vital role in European energy security in 2023, following a slump in Russian pipeline exports to Europe in 2022, with new regasification facilities Declining Growing 86M tonnes Infographic Industry, heating and emerging Asia to drive LNG demand growth Demand for natural gas has already peaked in some regions But demand for LNG is set to continue growing beyond 2040 China to drive demand for LNG this decade to meet industry needs and decarbonisation goals LNG continues to lower emissions in the marine sector LNG-fuelled vessels in operation set to double over the coming years Continuing policy support for natural gas projects in Asia that deliver environmental and economic benefits Gas provides flexibility to balance intermittent solar and wind generation Gas prices more stable in 2023 but volatility lingered in tight market USA became largest LNG exporter in 2023, shipping 86 million tonnes Gas and LNG prices stabilised during 2023 But limited new LNG supply has kept gas prices above historic averages Chinese gas demand grew 8% despite modest economic recovery Overtakes Japan to become largest LNG importer again European gas use fell due to continued elevated prices LNG continued to play a vital energy security role with Europe importing more than 120 million tonnes 404 MT 2023 +7 MT 2022 2022 2023 2040 2024 24/7 power output Global trade in LNG reached 404 million tonnes in 2023, an increase of 7 million tonnes compared to 2022 Latent LNG demand to keep pace with new supply but dependent on regas infrastructure investment China’s gas demand expected to rise by more than 50% by 2040 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 +50% North America expected to meet ~30% of total global LNG demand. But reliance on four basins could create midstream constraints ~30% Europe will continue to need LNG to meet gas supply needs despite consensus for falling gas demand Global LNG supply expansion coming this decade but startup timings uncertain Declining domestic gas and growing power markets set to drive South and South-east Asia LNG imports Dependent on investment in regasification infrastructure
22 I SAFETY4SEA Log I March 2024 I ISSUE 90 safety4sea.com notion that despite having intelligent individuals within an organization, the effectiveness of teams and the organization as a whole may still be compromised due to dysfunction. In this context, the concept of performance is defined by three levels: individual performance, team performance and organizational performance. The two parameters of human performance The practical lesson gleaned from the data on surgeons underscores the necessity of adopting a holistic approach to evaluating human performance. Rather than solely focusing on individual capabilities, it is crucial to consider the interplay of team dynamics and organizational factors. Even highly skilled individuals may see their effectiveness compromised if they are unable to collaborate effectively within their team or if there is a lack of cohesion within the organization. Rather than evaluating performance simply on how well a job is done, it would be more beneficial to evaluate performance based on two parameters: the first parameter should be based on how well the individual does the job, while the other parameter should be focused on how much individuals like each other. Psychological safety and social reflectivity The concept of social reflectivity, or psychological safety, is a crucial factor in human performance. A focus on how well team members work with each other, in addition to how well they perUNLOCKING HUMAN PERFORMANCE: KEY AREAS TO FOCUS ON One of the main aspects one must understand is that human performance is not a linear progression but is influenced by changing contexts. There is a common misconception that people keep getting smarter overtime due to more education, training, and practice, but this is not quite true. For instance, while practice is known to enhance proficiency over time, individual performance is also heavily influenced by team dynamics. Take the medical profession as an example: Surgeons' performance is not solely determined by their experience but also by the cohesion and effectiveness of the teams they work with. Research demonstrates this phenomenon clearly: When new surgeons operate, the mortality rate stands at 1%. With increased experience, this rate decreases to 0.25%. However, when surgeons transition to new hospitals with unfamiliar teams, the mortality rate reverts back to 1%. Changing teams could lead to a decline in performance, emphasizing the importance of considering contextual factors. Changing teams is a persistent challenge for the maritime industry, as individuals have to work with a new group of people every time they board a new vessel. Three performance levels Low performance is not necessarily the fault of the individual. Within any organization, we can have intelligent individuals but still have dysfunctional teams and organisations. This is the ‘gangway rule’ that underscores the During the 2023 SAFETY4SEA Athens Forum, Erik Green pointed out that human performance is context dependent. Erik Green went on to explain that developing human and safety performance requires that we focus on collective intelligence which is strengthened when people experience psychological safety. Erik Green Managing Director and Partner, Green-Jakobsen OPINION
ISSUE 90 I March 2024 I SAFETY4SEA Log I 23 safety4sea.com form their tasks, is essential. Psychological safety involves feeling appreciated and being able to speak up, contributing to effective teamwork. Based on Green Jacobsen’s data, if social reflectivity levels are low, individuals tend to stop discussing their job. If the job and the way that people onboard do different tasks are not discussed, it is more likely that mistakes will be made, much like the surgeons. This is a Key Performance Indicator (KPI) that could be proven beneficial to look on. As a result, there is a need for a continuous review process, emphasizing on regular performance reviews and discussions of the safety-critical operations. The goal is to create awareness among senior officers and crew members about areas that require attention and reviewing, leading to a continuous cycle of improvement. It is important to note that Green Jakobsen draws data to analyse human performance from their Safety Delta platform, which continuously collects data from 50,000 seafarers who act as responders to the platform. The key element is that it is not just a single sample. Green Jakobsen continuously follows this population which provides relevant information for performance standards for the last six years, to note developments and draw conclusions. Key conclusions In summary, the complexity of human performance is reflected by the importance of teamwork and the need for a holistic approach that encompasses both team and organizational perspectives. Performance reviews drive human performance but to ensure valuable performance reviews, we need psychological safety, which is best ensured when leaders actively and continuously work towards this goal. When the crew knows that they are being reviewed, they tend to display better results. Therefore, when leaders direct their attention towards areas that influence performance and identify issues that need improvement, performance improvement can occur. Such improvement will be felt and observed by all crew members. Explore more at http://tinyurl.com/mteupy8u OPINION Performance is context dependent; Performance is always linked to ‘context’ and decided at work.
32 I SAFETY4SEA Log I March 2024 I ISSUE 90 safety4sea.com be compatible with net-zero fuels such as hydrogen or ammonia. At the same time, there is ensuing support from the industry partners on voyage optimization, virtual arrival (VA) and Just In Time (JIT). Member states are also bringing in special green notations for vessels to encourage and support the decarbonization drive. Various projects are underway between IMO and Member states/industry partners. Challenges for Smaller Operators • Higher capital (building) costs: can go up to nearly 200-300% per vessel • Heavier displacement: lesser cargo/ passenger carrying capacity will pose a problem • Sophisticated vessels in comparison to current conventional boats • Uncertainty regarding design, technology, endurance, maintenance, spares • Questions regarding uninterrupted availability of alternate/green fuels • In the case of electrification, safety concerns regarding fires, lead/acid pollution etc. • Human capital, training, and expertise • May not be a financially viable venture for smaller operators • Possible increase in H&M premiums Different green solution strategies Among the different alternative fuels, one the most popular lower carbon fuels is LNG. Whilst there are many advantages over conventional fossil fuels, there also lies the problem of methane slip wherein unburned methane escapes to the atmosphere in between the well to wake process. Methane is also actually DECARBONIZATION: A RISK AND INSURANCE PERSPECTIVE When the 2018 IMO GHG Strategy was initially released, although a lot of changes were required to be made, it was still deemed to be within reach. The new IMO targets released in 2023, now require 70% reduction in carbon footprint by 2040 and set the introduction of an extra element requiring to reduce GHG components by 70% to 80%. Now, the shipping industry is to achieve Net-Zero by 2050. This has been a wake-up call for all the industry players and all efforts must be increased exponentially. 2018 IMO GHG Strategy vs 2023 IMO Revised GHG Strategy In 2018, IMO agreed the following: • To reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by at least 40% by 2030 • To reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by at least 70% by 2030 • To reduce total GHG emissions by at least 50% by 2050 In 2023, IMO revised above targets and agreed the following: • Additionally, uptake of zero/near-zero GHG strategy by 5-10% by 2030 • To reduce total annual international shipping GHG by 20-30% by 20230 • Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by at least 70% by 2040 • To reduce total annual international shipping GHG by 70-80% by 2040 • Net zero annual GHG emissions by at least 2050 Addressing climate change In Singapore, from 2030, all new harbour crafts should be fully electric or be capable of using B100 biofuels or During the 2023 SAFETY4SEA Singapore Forum, Capt. Hari Subramaniam reminded us that the clock is ticking as the industry continues to hurtle towards 2030, where the first waypoint of the IMO GHG strategy will be reached. Capt. Hari Subramaniam Regional Head – Business Relations, The Shipowners’ Club OPINION
ISSUE 90 I March 2024 I SAFETY4SEA Log I 33 safety4sea.com Claims Experience Vs Risk Change Perception From a risk perspective, it's evident that the emergence of newer technologies and the adoption of alternative fuels may lead to significant potential claims, both in terms of quantity and impact. The primary areas of concern regarding potential claims and the shifting risk perception are outlined below: • Crew illness/injury/death: Probable increase with new technologies? • Cargo loss/damage: Probable increase with new technologies with increased fire hazards? • Environment - pollution and wreck: Possibly some change in pollution, also probable increase in the wreck removals associated with electrical/methanol fire etc. • Navigation: No perceived change in risk however loss of power leading to collisions/groundings could be significant in the initial periods of implementation. • Passenger: No perceived change in risk In conclusion, it is evident that addressing the diverse spectrum of challenges in the shipping industry requires a collaborative effort among all stakeholders. The Maritime and Port Authority (MPA) of Singapore has initiated various expressions of interest (EOI) to this end. Additionally, administrations like Singapore are actively engaging with stakeholders and service providers to provide support and ensure the industry's sustainability. Decarbonization transcends the responsibility of any single stakeholder; rather, it is a collective challenge that concerns every inhabitant of our planet. Explore more at http://tinyurl.com/5bcppv57 OPINION Decarbonisation is not any single stakeholder’s problem – it is a collective problem of every person living on the planet. about 80% more global warning effects than normal carbon dioxide, creating extra barrier to LNG. Methanol is another option and whilst it has its own challenges, the methane slip problem is eradicated. Hydrogen powered cells are also an upcoming technology. This is still in the testing stages but again because of its properties may be only suitable for smaller ships on short voyages. Electrification is viewed as another clean solution but there are also other issues to consider such as batteries design and surrounding fire hazards, storage and the most important factor is that the electricity must be derived from renewable energy. We cannot burn trees and other natural resources to generate electricity to power our boats - it simply defeats the purpose. We also have different new evolving sources of renewable energy derived from the likes of wind and waves. They are all in different stages of evolution. Nuclear technology is another potential solution where, if controlled, it can probably be rolled out very measuredly. Ammonia has also its own bag of challenges involving toxicity problems and health and safety concerns.
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