Windward AI explores the impact of route deviations due to the ongoing Red Sea attacks and deceptive shipping practices on the maritime landscape.
As Windward explains, many vessels are now taking the long detour around the Cape of Good Hope to avoid transiting the Red Sea, adding weeks to their journeys. The disruptions have spiked insurance costs, transit times, and shipping prices.
According to Windward, to give just one example, the price of shipping containers from East Asia to North Europe increased 243% to $5,456 from December 2023 to January 2024. The economic impact is just beginning to take its toll on shipping stakeholders, with industry experts predicting the downturn will have staying power.
The Red Sea crisis has meant a shakeup across the board, with almost everyone feeling the effects – from tactical disruptions to global trade, severe economic harm to companies and countries, and security challenges that must be understood and addressed.
… said Windward in their report
General Cargo and Bulk Carriers
General cargo and bulk carriers exhibited noteworthy decreases in the percentages of vessels avoiding Bab-al-Mandeb and the Suez Canal (January 2023 to January 2024 comparison).
There was only a 14% decrease in the daily average of general bulk and bulk carriers passing through Bab-al-Mandeb and a 16% decrease for the Suez Canal in January 2024. The Cape of Good Hope had a significant increase, but a more modest one compared to container ships: a 50% rise compared to January 2023.
Tankers
It makes sense that many tankers – the vessels carrying oil, oil products, and liquified chemicals – would avoid the threat of missile attacks. Imagine the environmental disaster that could result if a Houthi missile hit an oil tanker, not to mention the costs of a severely damaged vessel and the lost oil onboard, potential insurance premium rises, etc.
Windward’s Maritime AI™ found:
- A 40% decrease in tankers passing through Bab-al-Mandeb
- A 37% decrease for the Suez Canal
- A 90% increase in tankers sailing by the Cape of Good Hope.
Container ships
Windward observed a 70% and 60% decrease in the daily average of container vessels passing through Bab-al-Mandeb and the Suez Canal, respectively, when comparing January 2024 to January 2023.
The Cape of Good Hope saw a huge spike compared to a year earlier: a 216% increase in the daily average of container vessels passing through! Many container ships and crews clearly did not want to risk close proximity to the Houthi rebels and their missiles.
This is also reflected in the range of Windward’s exceptions and critical-event alerts. All top carriers engaged in route deviations, according to our data from December 2023-January 2024.
Among the total exceptions flagged by Windward’s platform to its customers, the Taiwanese company Yang Ming experienced the highest rate of route deviations from the Red Sea, at 81%.
These unexpected diversions had quite an impact on transit times for popular trade flows. The average transit times from Asia to New York and Newark during Q4 of 2023 was 25.2 days. In January, it increased by 22.5% to 31 days.
Transit times from Asia to other ports increased dramatically, as diverted vessels began to arrive after their long transits. Port Said saw average transits reach 30.1 days, compared to 12.2 days last month. Piraeus saw similarly dramatic increases, at 27.8 days vs. 14.1 days.
Gioia Tauro reached a 28.7-day average for transits in January, but that only rose from 24 days, as diverted vessels already began arriving there last month.
Here are the percentage increases in transit times from Asia to the Mediterranean (September vs. January):Asia-Ambarli: 0%
- Asia-Barcelona: 51%
- Asia-Malta: 174%
- Asia-Gioia Tauro: 250% (it went from 8 to 29 days!)
- Asia-Pirerus: 139%
- Asia-Port Said: 138%
Windward saw similar increases in Europe. From China, Felixstowe saw an 11-day increase to 37.4 days, and nearby Antwerp was much worse, with a 49.4-day average transit in January. These are the increases in percentages in transit times from Asia (excluding China) to Europe and the UK (September vs. January):
- Antwerp: 35% increase
- Rotterdam: 46% increase
- Algeciras: 51% increase
- Felixstowe: 35% increase
