Sal Mercogliano, Maritime historian, Campbell University, revisited the state of global shipping as fresh disruptions largely fueled by escalating tensions between the U.S. and China shake the trade landscape.
Proposed tariffs from the U.S. Trade Representative are targeting Chinese-built vessels, cranes, containers, and port-related services, creating another layer of uncertainty for global shippers. As a result, companies are reassessing supply routes and logistics strategies.
Maersk, a key indicator of global trade health, reported a steep 30–40% drop in container volumes between the U.S. and China in April. Chinese imports are now facing tariffs as high as 145%, prompting some factories to halt shipments entirely or reduce operations to part-time schedules.
Major carriers like Hapag-Lloyd have seen up to 30% of U.S.-bound bookings from China canceled. This disruption has led many companies to shift demand to Southeast Asian markets, including Vietnam, Thailand, and Cambodia, as alternative sourcing options.
Furthermore, at U.S. ports, particularly Los Angeles and Long Beach, which together handle roughly 40% of all American container imports, the activity is visibly declining. Vessel bookings from China to the U.S. have reportedly dropped by as much as 60% in recent weeks.
While that figure reflects short-term fluctuations rather than a total annual decrease, the trend signals serious near-term volatility. Analysts expect freight costs to rise again as companies look to restock inventories, especially if tariffs are modified or lifted. Such sudden demand surges could overwhelm port infrastructure and drive prices up further.
Several industry leaders have weighed in on the situation. Ryan Petersen, CEO of Flexport, emphasized that the full impact of the tariffs will become clear by May or June, given the time lag in maritime logistics. He warned that if current conditions persist, the U.S. could face not only inventory shortages but also a $2 trillion hit to economic activity.
Additionally, John McCown of Blue Alpha Capital highlighted how disruptions like these undermine the shipping industry’s need for consistency and rhythm, injecting inefficiency and unnecessary costs.
Craig Fuller, CEO of FreightWaves, noted that trucking activity out of the Port of LA is already down by 23%, and could drop as much as 50% in the coming weeks, an alarming sign for West Coast logistics employment.
Port of Los Angeles data supports these concerns. While Q1 traffic was strong due to frontloading, importers rushing goods in before the tariffs hit. Week 18 saw a 10% decline, followed by a 32% decline in Week 19. Live ship tracking shows fewer vessels heading across the Pacific toward California.
Many shipping lines are resorting to “blank sailings” canceling voyages on trans-Pacific routes to adjust to falling demand.
Moreover the future of global shipping volumes will hinge on how tariffs evolve, how much inventory remains in domestic warehouses, and whether this is a temporary disruption or a longer-term shift.
While some ports like New York and New Jersey are experiencing increased activity, the broader outlook remains uncertain. If high tariffs persist and supply chains cannot adjust quickly enough, American consumers may face rising prices, delayed shipments, and product shortages in the second half of 2025.
While inventory buffers may delay the pain, the full impact of these trade shifts is likely still ahead. If U.S. trade policy remains in flux, the resulting instability could reshape global logistics for months or even years to come.
