Driven by increasing consumer demand and rising retail sales, imports at the US’ major retail container ports are expected to set a new record this month, even though new tariffs on goods from China just took effect, according to the monthly Global Port Tracker report released by the US National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates.
Retailers cannot easily or quickly change their global supply chains, so imports from China and elsewhere are expected to continue to grow for the foreseeable future. As tariffs begin to hit imported consumer goods or the parts and equipment needed to produce US goods, these hidden taxes will mean higher prices for Americans rather than significant changes to international trade.
…said NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold.
Referring to US tariffs on $34 billion in Chinese products that took effect on Friday, Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett added:
July 6 was the beginning of the United States’ trade war. There will be no winners, only losers – particularly consumers – as costs increase.
Ports covered by Global Port Tracker handled 1.82 million TEUs in May, the latest month for which after-the-fact numbers are available. That was up 11.6% from April as the annual wave of summer merchandise began to arrive and up 4.3% year-over-year. A TEU is one 20-foot-long cargo container or its equivalent.
- June was estimated at 1.83 million TEU, up 6.8% year-over-year.
- July is forecast at 1.87 million TEU, up 3.8%;
- August at 1.91 million TEU, up 4.2%;
- September at 1.82 million TEU, up 2.1%;
- October at 1.89 million, up 5.3%, and
- November at 1.81 million TEU, up 2.6 million TEU.
The June number tied the record of 1.83 million TEU imported during a single month set in August 2017, and the forecast for July would break that record while August should set yet another record.
While cargo numbers do not correlate directly with sales, the record imports mirror strong results seen by retailers this spring and expectations of continued growth through the remainder of the year.
Retail sales as calculated by NRF – excluding automobiles, restaurants and gasoline stations –were up 5.6% year-over-year in May and up 4.6% on a three-month moving average. NRF is forecasting that total 2018 sales will be up between 3.8% and 4.4% over 2017.
The first half of 2018 is expected to total 10.3 million TEU, an increase of 4.9% over the first half of 2017. The total for 2017 was 20.5 million TEU, up 7.6% from 2016’s previous record of 19.1 million TEU.
