The US National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates reported that they expect imports at major US retail container ports to mark a double-digit year-over-year decline this spring and summer as the economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic continue.
Overall, the pandemic has already led to great shipping disruption and declines reported in many US ports. Now, the NRF stated that although factories in China commenced operations and stores in the US that were closed are staring to open, volumes will further decline.
NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold stated that
Shoppers will come back and there is still a need for essential items, but the economic recovery will be gradual and retailers will adjust the amount of merchandise they import to meet demand.
Accordingly, U.S. ports covered by Global Port Tracker handled 1.37 million TEUs in March, the latest month for which after-the-fact numbers are available, the report said. That was the lowest volume since 1.34 million TEU in March 2016, decreasing by a 9.1% from this February and down 14.8% year-over-year.
April was estimated reaching a decline of 13.4% year-over-year, handling 1.51 million TEU. In addition, the forecasts about May see 1.47 million TEU, down 20.4% from last year; June at 1.46 million TEU, down 18.6% ; July at 1.58 million TEU, down 19.3%; August at 1.73 million TEU, down 12%, and September at 1.7 million TEU, down 9.3%.
Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett added that much depends on consumers’ willingness to return to spending.
Our view is that second-quarter economic growth will be significantly worse than the previous quarter, but we continue to expect recovery to come in the second half of the year, especially the fourth quarter and into 2021,
… Hackett concluded.
