The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) has released its Emissions Gap Report for 2024, urging nations to strengthen their commitments to reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
As explained, nations must significantly enhance their commitments to reducing greenhouse gas emissions in the next round of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), which are due for submission in early 2025 ahead of COP30. The report indicates that cuts of 42 percent are needed by 2030 and 57 percent by 2035 to remain on track for limiting global warming to 1.5°C.
Consequences of inaction
Failure to increase ambition in these new NDCs and to begin delivering immediate results would place the world on a trajectory for a temperature rise of 2.6-3.1°C this century. Such an increase would lead to debilitating impacts on people, the planet, and global economies.
The path to a 1.5°C future
However, the report emphasizes that it remains technically possible to align with a 1.5°C pathway, with renewable energy sources like solar and wind, alongside the preservation of forests, offering substantial opportunities for rapid emissions reductions. To capitalize on this potential, strong NDCs must be supported by a comprehensive government approach that maximizes socioeconomic and environmental co-benefits.
Furthermore, enhanced international collaboration is essential, which includes reforming the global financial architecture, fostering robust private sector actions, and achieving a minimum six-fold increase in mitigation investment. The G20 nations, particularly the largest-emitting members, will need to undertake the most significant efforts.
Emission reduction potential in the transport sector
Regarding the transport sector, the emission reduction potential is particularly notable, with estimates of 3.2 GtCO2e/year (1.6–4.8 GtCO2e/year) by 2030 and 4.8 GtCO2e/year (2.4–7.2 GtCO2e/year) by 2035. Road transport stands out as the primary contributor to these reductions, with an expected potential of 2.5 GtCO2e/year in 2030 and 3.6 GtCO2e/year in 2035. Additional contributions are anticipated from shipping and aviation. Realizing the full mitigation potential in the transport sector could lead to a reduction of emissions by 36 percent in 2030 and 53 percent in 2035 compared to current policy projections.
Future of shipping emissions
In shipping specifically, there is a projected contribution of up to 0.2 GtCO2e/year of emission reduction potential by 2030 and up to 0.4 GtCO2e by 2035. These reductions will primarily stem from advancements in energy efficiency, operational optimization, and a transition to zero- and low-emission fuels such as biofuels, hydrogen, methanol, and ammonia.
