The COVID-19 pandemic’s impact on maritime trade volumes in 2020 was less severe than initially expected but its knock-on effects will be far-reaching and could transform maritime transport, according to UNCTAD’s Review of Maritime Transport 2021.
The report shows that maritime trade contracted by 3.8% in 2020, reflecting an initial shock, but it rebounded later in the year and is projected to increase by 4.3% in 2021. The medium-term outlook for maritime trade remains positive but subject to “mounting risks and uncertainties”.
Headwinds affect maritime trade
The report paints a picture of unprecedented pressures in global supply chains, dramatic spikes in freight rates, significant price rises on the horizon for consumers and importers and potential shifts in trade patterns due to trade tensions and in the quest for more resilience.
A lasting recovery will depend on the path of the pandemic and largely hinges on being able to mitigate the headwinds and on a worldwide vaccine roll-out
said UNCTAD Secretary-General Rebeca Grynspan.
UNCTAD also raises concern over the continuing pandemic-induced crisis around crew changes, with lockdowns, border closures and lack of international flights leaving hundreds of thousands of seafarers stranded at sea, unable to be replaced or repatriated.
The report now calls for urgent attention from flag, port and labour-supplying states to end the crew change crisis, claiming that all states should be parties to relevant international legal instruments, including the Maritime Labour Convention of 2006.
It also urges governments and industry to continue working together and in collaboration with relevant international organizations to facilitate crew changes.
Factors driving consumer prices higher
UNCTAD mentions that supply chain bottlenecks have impacted the economic recovery, as the rebound in trade has run into pandemic-induced logistical challenges, including shortages of equipment and containers, less reliable services, congested ports and longer delays and dwell times.
Supply-side constraints in container shipping are also rocking maritime transport and trade. While orders for new ships declined by 16% in 2020, continuing a downward trend of previous years, in 2021 shipping companies responded to the capacity limitations with a surge of new orders
However, shipping lines have benefitted from soaring freight rates, the report notes, as surcharges, fees and rates temporarily hiked even further after the container ship Ever Given blocked the Suez Canal in March 2021.
“The increasing costs of container shipping have been a challenge for all traders and supply chain managers”, says the report, “but especially so for smaller shippers, who may be less able to absorb the additional expense and are at a disadvantage when negotiating rates and booking space on ships.”
If the current surge in container freight rates continues, it will significantly increase both import and consumer prices, the report warns. In fact, UNCTAD’s analysis predicts that global import price levels will increase on average by 11% as a result of the freight rate increases, but SIDS that primarily depend on maritime transport for their imports could face increases of up to 24%.
Megatrends shaping maritime transport
The pandemic catalysed digitalization and automation, which should deliver efficiency and cost savings. However, the shipping industry is also coming to grips with climate adaptation and resilience, and the urgent need to decarbonize and find alternative fuels to reduce emissions, which will inevitably come at a cost, says UNCTAD.
By exposing the vulnerabilities of existing supply chains, the COVID-19 disruption has sharpened the need to build resilience and revived the debate over globalization and the supply chains of the future
notes Shamika N. Sirimanne, UNCTAD’s director of technology and logistics.
Regarding concerns over increased reshoring and nearshoring the report points out that it may be straightforward to reshore labour-intensive and low-value production, but it’s more complex to move production and switch suppliers for mid- and high-value-added manufacturing.
Furthermore, the report predicts a blend of reshoring, diversification, replication and regionalization, with China still likely to remain a leading manufacturing site.
Hybrid operating models involving just-in-time and just-in-case supply chain models are likely to emerge. These adjustments could lead to a demand for more flexible shipping services, with implications for vessel types and sizes, ports of call and distances travelled
In the meantime, e-commerce, accelerated by the pandemic, has transformed consumer shopping habits and spending patterns and driven the demand for distribution facilities and warehousing that are digitally enabled and offer value-added services. This could generate new business opportunities for shipping and ports.
Looking ahead, UNCTAD expects that global socioeconomic recovery will depend on smart, resilient and sustainable maritime transport and a broad-based worldwide vaccination effort, with developing countries having fairer access to vaccines.
