The Arctic Institute, the Center for Circumpolar Security Studies (www.thearcticinstitute.org) issued a report on the future of Arctic Shipping.
The report examines whether the Arctic offers an alternative and shorter route to China’s rapidly growing international trade. Over the next two decades Chinese trade within the Asia-Pacific region and with countries in the southern hemisphere will experience the sharpest growth. Africa and Latin America will be supplying a growing share of China’s commodity needs.
After more than a decade of delays, a new generation of Ultra Large Container Ships (ULCS), about twice the size of existing vessels, is about to enter into service. As container ships are becoming increasingly larger to take advantage of economies of scale, draft and beam restrictions will prevent a growing share of the global merchant fleet to transit the northernmost ocean along the NSR.
Furthermore, the absence of major ports throughout the Arctic Ocean makes it impossible for operators to benefit from network economics.
The report concludes that while climate change will, over the coming decades, transform the frozen north into a seasonally navigable ocean, Arctic shipping routes will not become a new silk road for China.
Future shipping in the Polar region will mostly consist of seasonal destinational transport,delivering supplies into the Arctic for its increasing economic activity and transporting the region’snatural resources to markets in East Asia.
Find out more by reading the report written by Malte Humpert and entitled as ”The Future of Arctic Shipping- a New Silk Road for China?”
Download PDF here.
Malte Humpert is the founder and Executive Director of The Arctic Institute. His research focuses on Arctic shipping and shipping scenarios, China’s geopolitical and geoeconomic interests in the region, the impact of climate change on the Arctic environment, and the development of oil and gas resources throughout the Arctic region. He has been working on Arctic issues since 2007 and regularly participates in Arctic-related events and conferences in North America and Europe.
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