Many question when this change is going to come. The timing depends on how many electric vehicles will be on the road, how seriously governments take global warming and a confluence of other factors. The lack of visibility in the oil industry's long-term future remains a big risk for investors.
JJ Kinahan, chief market strategist at TD Ameritrade, commented
Look at what happened to the coal industry. You have to keep that in the back of your mind and be vigilant. It can turn very, very quickly.
A Barclay's report resulted to the fact that oil demand has a great gap, between 70 million to 130 million barrels per day; This could either mean the decline from today's daily demand of 100 million barrels, or a strong increase.
After oil prices bottomed in early 2016, energy stocks barely budged — up just 14%, as measured by the S&P SPDR Energy ETF (XLE) (over the same time, the S&P 500 has soared 55%). And yet oil prices have nearly tripled.
Adam White, an equity strategist at SunTrust Advisory Services, highlighted that
A lot of damage has already been done. People are jaded towards the industry.
Barclays noted that oil reliance will probably peak between 2030 and 2035. Yet, the peak could come even earlier, as in 2025.
The International Energy Agency estimates that petrochemicals will account for the biggest source of demand growth through 2030.
In the meantime, the arrival of millions of people in fast-growing nations as China and India to the middle class could drive up energy demand more than enough to offset the rise of electric vehicles.
In light of the above assumptions, Jason Bordoff, a former energy adviser to President Barack Obama, said it's unlikely that oil demand will peak before 2025. Even if it did, it could plateau at a very high level.
Also, DNV GL estimates that the oil peak will become a reality in 2020s.
Concluding, as Sverre Alvik, lead author of the firm's energy transition outlook report noted
By 2030, oil shareholders will feel the impact.