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US withdrawal from JCPOA to affect oil market

After the US decided to withdraw from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action regulating Iran’s nuclear activities, there is a change in the the focus of oil market analysis from the fundamentals to geopolitics. There is a 180-day period for customers to adapt their purchasing strategies and it remains to be seen other aspects of the sanctions will be implemented. When sanctions were imposed, Iran’s exports fell by about 1.2 mb/d. Namely, EIA said: It is too soon to say what will happen this time, but we should examine whether other producers could step in to ensure an orderly flow of oil to the market and offset a disruption to Iranian exports. However, neither Venezuela nor Mexico can raise output in the short term, but some of the 1.5 mb/d that have been reduced by other producers under the Vienna Agreement might be available to keep markets well supplied. In Venezuela, the decline of oil production is accelerating and by the end of this year output could have fallen by several hundred thousand barrels a day. The possible supply shortfall by Iran and Venezuela could cause a major challenge for producers to diverge from sharp price rises and fill the ...

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