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US withdrawal from JCPOA to affect oil market

After the US decided to withdraw from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action regulating Iran’s nuclear activities, there is a change in the the focus of oil market analysis from the fundamentals to geopolitics. There is a 180-day period for customers to adapt their purchasing strategies and it remains to be seen other aspects of the sanctions will be implemented. When sanctions were imposed, Iran’s exports fell by about 1.2 mb/d. Namely, EIA said: It is too soon to say what will happen this time, but we should examine whether other producers could step in to ensure an orderly flow of oil to the market and offset a disruption to Iranian exports. However, neither Venezuela nor Mexico can raise output in the short term, but some of the 1.5 mb/d that have been reduced by other producers under the Vienna Agreement might be available to keep markets well supplied. In Venezuela, the decline of oil production is accelerating and by the end of this year output could have fallen by several hundred thousand barrels a day. The possible supply shortfall by Iran and Venezuela could cause a major challenge for producers to diverge from sharp price rises and fill the ...

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2020 sulphur cap to increase oil prices

Morgan Stanley noted that crude oil prices will reach $90 a barrel by 2020 as the 2020 sulphur cap on shipping emission come into force. The changes will increase demand for distillate products such as diesel and marine gasoil, driving up the need for crude oil. The refining industry will need to produce more "green" fuels.

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IEA comments on current oil market conditions

Oil market has been shaped by strong growth in demand, compliance by countries party to the Vienna agreement to cut output, and the crisis in Venezuela, leading to tighter overall market conditions. The restoration of sanctions on Iran, which exports 2.5 million barrels of oil a day and is the world’s fifth-largest exporter, may affect the market balance.

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Oil prices decrease as US production increases

Oil prices decreased on Thursday 3 of May, as a rise in US crude inventories and a record weekly US production was reported, This increase is opposing to the efforts made by OPEC to decrease supplies and tighten the market. The prices were reduced after a report by EIA, which showed that US crude inventories increase by 6.2 million barrels to 435.96 million barrels.

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