Tag: EIA

In its June 2018 update of the Short-Term Energy Outlook, EIA predicts that crude oil prices will average $71 per barrel in 2018 and $68/b in 2019. The 2019 forecast price is also $2/b higher than in the May STEO.  Crude oil prices have increased greatly as global oil inventories have generally declined from January 2017 through April 2018.

Global LNG trade reached 38.2 billion cubic feet per day in 2017, the largest annual volume increase on record, according to the Annual Report on LNG trade by GIIGNL. 2017 saw 19 LNG exporting countries and 40 LNG importing countries. Australia and US were among the countries with the largest increases in exports.

Global petroleum inventories declined through 2017 and the first quarter of 2018, marking the end of an extended period of oversupply in global petroleum markets that began before the OPEC 2016 agreement to cut production, according to EIA's Short-Term Energy Outlook issued earlier this month.

The United States remained the world's top producer of petroleum and natural gas hydrocarbons in 2017, reaching a record high, according to US EIA, noting that, since 2008, US petroleum and natural gas production has increased by nearly 60%. US has been the world's top producer of natural gas since 2009.

After the US decided to withdraw from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action regulating Iran’s nuclear activities, there is a change in the the focus of oil market analysis from the fundamentals to geopolitics. There is a 180-day period for customers to adapt their purchasing strategies and it remains to be seen other aspects of the sanctions will be implemented. When sanctions were imposed, Iran’s exports fell by about 1.2 mb/d. Namely, EIA said: It is too soon to say what will happen this time, but we should examine whether other producers could step in to ensure an orderly flow of oil to the market and offset a disruption to Iranian exports. However, neither Venezuela nor Mexico can raise output in the short term, but some of the 1.5 mb/d that have been reduced by other producers under the Vienna Agreement might be available to keep markets well supplied. In Venezuela, the decline of oil production is accelerating and by the end of this year output could have fallen by several hundred thousand barrels a day. The possible supply shortfall by Iran and Venezuela could cause a major challenge for producers to diverge from sharp price rises and fill the ...

EIA’s May Short-Term Energy Outlook predicts that Brent crude oil prices will average $71 per barrel in 2018, $7/b higher than last month’s STEO. EIA’s forecast for regular gasoline retail prices increased to an average of $2.79/gallon in 2018, $0.15/g higher that in last month’s STEO. Monthly average Brent crude oil spot prices have increased in 9 of the past 10 months.

Oil prices decreased on Thursday 3 of May, as a rise in US crude inventories and a record weekly US production was reported, This increase is opposing to the efforts made by OPEC to decrease supplies and tighten the market. The prices were reduced after a report by EIA, which showed that US crude inventories increase by 6.2 million barrels to 435.96 million barrels.

US crude oil exports averaged 1.1 million barrels per day in 2017, an increase of 527,000 b/d from 2016. Despite this acceleration in export growth, the US.Gulf Coast ports cannot fully load Very Large Crude Carriers. Instead, export growth was achieved by using smaller and less cost-effective ships. The Louisiana Offshore Oil Port is the only U.S. facility capable of accommodating a fully loaded VLCC.

Annual average US crude oil production reached 9.3 million barrels per day in 2017. EIA projects that U.S. crude oil production will continue to grow in 2018 and 2019, averaging 10.7 million b/d and 11.3 million b/d, respectively. U.S. crude oil production has increased significantly over the past 10 years, mainly because of production from tight rock formations using horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing. 

Total net energy imports to the US fell to 7.3 quadrillion British thermal units in 2017, a 35% decrease from 2016 and the lowest level since 1982, when both gross imports and gross exports were much lower, according to EIA. The larger factor leading to the reduction in the net energy trade balance has been increasing energy exports.