The High Level Panel for a Sustainable Ocean Economy (Ocean Panel) has published the paper “The future of the workforce in a sustainable ocean economy” to provide a glimpse of what a sustainable ocean economy may look like for people over the next 25 years.
As stated, the paper offers guidance for stakeholders to advance a sustainable ocean economy, emphasizing the need for a just transition rooted in inclusion and fairness. It also highlights critical challenges such as data limitations, skills shortages, lack of training and educational resources, especially in developing countries, regional infrastructure disparities and insufficient funding and institutional capacity.
Furthermore the paper follows the publication of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) report “The Ocean Economy to 2050” and utilises some of the data published in that report.
Among other key findings, the report highlights:
- The sustainable ocean economy is a major opportunity for job creation, offering new and diverse roles while supporting environmental and social goals.
- As the sustainable ocean economy progresses, employment could grow by 51 million jobs by 2050, reaching 184 million people globally — an increase of 1.5% per year from 2019.
- The best available data suggests that today, the formal ocean economy employs at least 133 million people globally. This number is likely to be much larger, for example subsistence fishing may raise the estimate of ocean economy jobs by roughly 100 million, but reliable data on the full scale of ocean-related employment is limited. However, its scale and diversity underscore the ocean’s importance now and in the future.
- Seven key drivers will shape the future of ocean employment: climate change, investment, sustainable practices, shifting demand, energy needs, innovation, and sustainability requirements.
Current employment status
- Base employment estimate of 133 million jobs in 2019.
- Marine and coastal tourism is the largest employer, with 79 million jobs in 2019.
- Fisheries and aquaculture is the second-largest employer, supporting an estimated 24 million jobs in 2019. Accounting for subsistence fishing, this estimate may increase to over 120 million.
- Marine transportation is the third-largest employer, with an estimated 19 million people employed globally.
- Significant data gaps exist in employment tracking across regions and sectors because of weak national data systems or insufficient detail on ocean-related industries.
Future employment trends
- Under the scenario of a sustainable ocean economy, employment could grow by 51 million by 2050, to over 184 million jobs, relative to 2019 baseline data.
- Under the scenario of a stalled transition to a sustainable ocean economy, employment falls relative to the 2019 baseline by nearly 40 million to just over 91 million.
- Marine renewable energy shows the strongest growth potential.
- Traditional sectors like offshore oil and gas face likely employment declines.
- Substantial workforce reskilling and adaptation will be required, particularly in developing regions.
- Digital transformation and technological innovation will create new job categories while potentially displacing others.
- Regional disparities in the pace of transition could exacerbate existing economic inequalities.
Critical challenges
- Substantial skills gaps exist between current capabilities and future needs.
- Access to training and educational resources is limited in developing nations.
- Regions have unequal infrastructure, funding and institutional capacity.
- Social equity and protection of vulnerable communities needs to be improved.
- Data limitations hamper effective workforce planning.
Projections of ocean economy employment to 2050
Projections for the ocean economy up to 2050 involve significant uncertainties due to the complex ecological and economic factors involved. To manage these uncertainties, models use scenarios based on key variables and assumptions. The OECD report offers the most reliable projections, using three scenarios: a baseline, a fast transition, and a stalled transition.
The baseline scenario projects ocean gross value added (GVA) growing nearly 90% from $2.2 trillion in 2019 to $4.1 trillion by 2050, with employment rising from 134 million to 203 million. However, this may overestimate employment due to unaccounted productivity improvements and sectoral changes for sustainability.
The fast transition scenario assumes a rapid shift from offshore oil and gas to renewable ocean energy (mainly offshore wind), resulting in a 68% GVA increase to $3.64 trillion and employment growing to 184 million by 2050. This scenario includes steady technological investments and moderate geopolitical and trade tensions.
Conversely, the stalled transition scenario assumes little growth in renewables post-2030, continued but declining offshore oil and gas, heightened geopolitical tensions and sharp trade declines. This leads to stagnant GVA near 2019 levels and a drop in employment by nearly 40 million to just over 91 million by 2050, lower than during the COVID-19 pandemic.
