The geopolitical shock following the U.S. airstrikes against Iran’s nuclear facilities, has sent oil to new highs as tensions in the Strait of Hormuz rattle global supply chains.
According to Kpler, as trading resumes, it is expected that oil will open with a sharp 7–10% gap up, driven by surging risk premiums, however, this spike may be short-lived. Although Iranian officials have emphasized that the parliamentary vote does not constitute an immediate closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
Nevertheless, the authorization itself has heightened geopolitical risk and has injected fresh injected fresh uncertainty into global oil supply chains.
The geopolitical shock has increased the probability of an early OPEC+ output hike for August potentially 411,000 barrels per day or more as the group seeks to stabilize markets and prevent excessive volatility. However, freight disruptions will be a key story to watch in the coming days, Kpler points out.
Furthermore, oil prices have already surged to their highest levels in nearly six months, fueled by fears of supply disruptions after the U.S. joined Israel in targeting Iranian nuclear sites. Brent crude spiked above $78 per barrel before retreating slightly to $77.60 in early Monday trading. As OPEC’s third-largest crude producer, Iran’s role in global supply adds significant weight to market reactions.
According to Gulf News, despite the rising tension, oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has so far remained stable, with vessel-tracking data showing 40–44 tankers continue to transit daily. However, freight rates have jumped accordingly and Qatar has delayed LNG vessel movements through the Strait.
Nonetheless, container and bulk vessel activity has declined and several shipping companies are exhibiting increased caution. Greece’s Shipping Ministry has also advised its domestic fleet to reassess Hormuz transits, citing elevated safety risks in the wake of U.S.-led strikes.
