According to Risk Intelligence, on 3rd May, a Houthi announcement led to concern. Following on from dozens of attacks against merchant ships in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden since November, the group threatened to extend their area of operations to the Eastern Mediterranean.
Considering the impact of Houthi attacks on maritime traffic in the Red Sea, the concerns caused by the new Houthi threats are understandable. The situation across the Middle East is likely to remain volatile in the coming weeks. In this environment, threats such as those issued by the Houthis several days ago are likely to generate additional concerns. Any such announcement, however, should be understood in the context of broader and longer-term developments – particularly with ongoing ceasefire talks and apparent Israeli preparations for further military action in Gaza targeting Rafah.
Moreover, other Iranian proxies – notably Hezbollah in Lebanon – also have the capability to target merchant ships in the Mediterranean. At the same time, these capabilities have existed for a long time. Actual attacks, however, would represent a significant escalation which may have unintended consequences for Iran’s network of proxy groups as well as for Iran itself.
For commercial maritime operations in general, it is therefore strongly recommended to closely monitor the broader political and security situation and to carefully assess individual incidents on an ongoing basis. That is the required foundation for comprehensive threat and risk assessments, both for day-to-day operations as well as for longer-term decisions about any types of commercial engagements across the region.
Risk Intelligence further notes that terrorism and insurgency, along with military operations, are classified as moderate threats, reflecting ongoing but controlled risks. Cargo theft, fraud, and corruption also pose moderate threats, indicating a consistent concern for logistics and governance. Conversely, piracy is deemed a low threat, suggesting effective maritime security measures. Elevated threats include smuggling and the related issues of stowaways and human trafficking, highlighting significant challenges in border control and human rights. Activism, though moderate, remains a persistent factor that can influence stability and security dynamics.
| Threat type | Threat level |
| Terrorism | Moderate |
| Piracy | Low |
| Insurgency and Military Operations | Moderate |
| Cargo Theft | Moderate |
| Smuggling | Elevated |
| Stowaways and human trafficking | Elevated |
| Fraud and corruption | Moderate |
| Activism | Moderate |
