LISW might show the signs of recovery
By Neville Smith
The shipping market has a spring in its step, even as summer draws to a close. There is it seems, confidence that finally, we are emerging into the light and the beginnings of a sustained recovery.
In this sense, London International Shipping Week, which will be in full swing by the time this piece is published, will be a useful thermometer with which to take the patient’s temperature.
We might not get a full appraisal and certainly the industry will need to be kept under observation, but there should be plenty of discussion of whether the worst is over and how quickly earnings and operations can get back to normal.
As a participant this week I shall certainly be looking for signs of returning confidence and full recovery but Jonah that I am, I’m not completely convinced we are out of the woods yet.
The problem that shipping has at the moment is equating activity with achievement. If we all just look busy, the feeling goes, we can work our way out of this. And just when you’re least expecting it, you’ll pop your head up and everything will be rosy again. This scenario is very unlikely to take place, at least in the short term.
For one thing, shipyard capacity is still far, far, too high and the very short memories of those who cashed in at the flood are still strong enough to have them believe that there is money to be made by hanging tight and waiting for better times. In one sense this might be true, if some of the ships lashed together as the yard was being built around them really are as short-lived as some people predict.
It would be a good thing if the global fleet was renewed and its average age reduced so significantly that one source of casualty risk is reduced, or even removed. Unfortunately, recent casualties tend to suggest that it is not as simple as that.
To read more click at the articleOver the worst? We might find out this week
Source: BIMCO
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