Shipowners considering their marine fuel future following the 2020 IMO 0.5% sulphur cap, should also take into consideration the expectation of oil companies, that almost 30% of commercial shipping will return to high sulphur fuel oil by 2030, according to the architecture and engineering consultancy Foreship.
At the time speaking, just over 100 ships run on LNG, with that number expected to be significantly below 500 by 2020.
Additionally, while the 0.1% fuel sulphur content limit inside emissions control areas has brought 1,500 scrubber installations, yard capacity could only increase that number to 3,000-4,000 by 2020, with most ships running on 0.5% sulphur content HFO to meet the cap.
Foreship Head of Machinery Department, Olli Somerkallio explained that, after 2020, 0.5% sulphur content fuel will be blended from distillates and HFO of up to 2.5% sulphur content. Higher sulphur HFO (HSHFO) can be used as a marine fuel where scrubbers are installed, but could also be a substitute fuel in gas powerplants in former Soviet countries, or a coal substitute. This will change the dynamic of HSHFO, because in order to compete with coal, prices would have to be relatively low.
Exhaust gas scrubbers, except from new pumping, water treatment and tank storage equipment, require considerable new pipework on board. Installing inline means that existing silencers need to be replaced with larger equipment, resulting in a space challenge for casing.
“Gaining this experience provides a wealth of independent experience that owners of cargo ships can draw on as the 2020 global sulphur cap approaches. The track record is also long enough to understand that ships within the same project do not always benefit from the same equipment selection,” Mr. Somerkallio said.
