In its Energy Outlook for 2019, BP reports that the transport sector will continue to be dominated by oil, despite the increasing penetration of alternative fuels, and particularly electricity and natural gas.
Namely, in the Evolving Transition (ET) scenario, the share of oil within transport falls to around 85% by 2040, down from 94% that it is toady. In fact, natural gas, electricity and biofuels together account for more than half of the increase in energy used in transport, with each providing around 5% of transport demand by 2040.
In addition, oil used in transport will rise by 4 Mb/d (220 Mtoe), with most of that demand deriving from increased use in aviation and marine, rather than road transportation.
[smlsubform prepend=”GET THE SAFETY4SEA IN YOUR INBOX!” showname=false emailtxt=”” emailholder=”Enter your email address” showsubmit=true submittxt=”Submit” jsthanks=false thankyou=”Thank you for subscribing to our mailing list”]
What is more, electricity and natural gas in transportation increase by broadly similar volumes (120 Mtoe), with the rise in use of electricity concentrated in passenger cars and light trucks; and the increasing demand for natural gas largely within long-distance road haulage and marine.
As for biofuels, their use will grow by just under 2 Mb/d (60 Mtoe).
However, an alternative ‘Lower-carbon transport’ scenario considers the scope for greater fuel switching, as well as faster efficiency gains. This scenario includes a large number of measures designed to reduce carbon emissions in the transport sector, including:
- Further tightening in vehicle efficiency standards, such that the average internal-combustion engine car in 2040 is around 55% more efficient than today; the pace of efficiency gains in new trucks and ships also increases;
- Increased electrification;
- Increasing the share of biofuels.
