NOAA’s National Weather Service is forecasting an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season for 2025, which runs from June 1 to November 30.
According to NOAA, there’s a 60% chance of above-normal activity, a 30% chance of a near-normal season, and only a 10% chance of a below-normal season. The forecast includes 13 to 19 named storms, with 6 to 10 becoming hurricanes and 3 to 5 reaching major hurricane strength (Category 3 or higher). NOAA has 70% confidence in these predictions.
Several climate factors are contributing to the heightened risk. These include warmer-than-average Atlantic ocean temperatures, weak wind shear, and ENSO-neutral conditions, all of which support the development of tropical systems.
Additionally, a stronger West African Monsoon could generate more tropical waves, often the seeds of powerful hurricanes. The continuation of a high-activity era in the Atlantic Basin, marked by high ocean heat content and reduced trade winds, further boosts storm potential.
Officials emphasize the importance of preparedness. With advanced models and tracking systems in place, NOAA aims to provide timely and accurate forecasts.
Acting NOAA Administrator Laura Grimm and Weather Service Director Ken Graham both stressed that hurricanes can impact areas far from the coast and urge residents to take proactive steps now to be ready for any potential storms.
To remind, Colorado State University researchers also forecasted an above-average 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, predicting 17 named storms, with nine expected to become hurricanes and four reaching major hurricane strength (Category 3 or higher).
