According to Windward’s Trade Patterns & Risk Insights Report for the last quarter of 2024, the maritime industry and trading ecosystem continued to grapple with disruption.
The last quarter of 2024 introduced new methods of illicit activity, including underwater infrastructure damage, LPG smuggling operations, and the emergence of new convenience flags, further complicating the global trading landscape.
The report delves into the shifting landscape of geopolitical tensions and sanction regimes, offering an in-depth analysis of crude, cargo, and LNG vessel activity within the global fleet. Moreover, it examines recent events, sanctions compliance, and deceptive shipping practices.
The new Baltic Sea infrastructure threat
Since November 2024, three undersea critical infrastructure cables were intentionally damaged in the Baltic region. A suggested sabotage pattern includes visits to the Russian Baltic Sea, followed by slow-speed activity in the European Baltic Sea.
In 2024, the monthly average of this sequence increased by 29% compared to 2023.
- Q4 2024 marked the highest monthly average in two years, showing a 49% increase from the 2024 yearly average.
- Compared to Q4 2023, the sequence rose by 187%, ruling out seasonality as a factor.
Iranian LPG smuggling to Bangladesh
Following the listing of a few LPG tankers in the recently released SHIP Act advisory, and the new regulatory focus on Iran-affiliated LPGs, Windward data revealed a new sophisticated typology that supports Iran in moving its LPG to Bangladesh undetected.
The pattern involves vessels engaged in location (GNSS) manipulations or dark activities in Iran, followed by multiple STS operations near Bangladesh, using additional dark activities to conceal discharges at ports or offshore terminals.
- At least 26 LPG Tankers have made at least 58 journeys from the Persian Gulf to Bangladesh over the past year – a 140% increase in the monthly average when compared to 2023.
- Ten of these vessels are flagged as high risk due to multiple dark activities, location (GNSS) manipulations, or loitering in the Persian Gulf before sailing to Bangladesh.
- Top 3 flags for the risky vessels are: Panama, St. Kitts and Nevis, Liberia, and Gabon.
Russia
Since June 2024, both the EU and OFAC have imposed various sanctions targeting Russia’s LNG sector, aiming to restrict the funds supporting its war with Ukraine. To assess the impact of these sanctions on LNG trade flows, slow-speed activities were analyzed at two facilities (LNG1 and LNG2) and in the waters just outside the peninsula.
- H2 2024 marks a 36% decrease in the monthly average of slow speed activities in LNG 1– Sabetta when compared to H1 2024, and an 18% decrease when compared to H2 of 2023.
- Q4 2024 marked an increase of 337% in the monthly average of slow speed activities outside the peninsula, when compared to the monthly average of 2024, and a 52% increase when compared to the monthly average of the same time period last year.
- With one of its main ice-capable tankers, Christophe de Margerie, sanctioned right as winter started, this trend is anticipated to rise. Fewer tankers will be able to access the frozen peninsula, and the limited number of ice-capable tankers will further constrain operations.
Q4 2024 vs. Q3 2024 shifts in hubs for commodity ship-to-ship meetings between tankers after one came from Russia
- A new hub was detected. The hub we first detected during Q3 in the Aegean Sea and continued to grow during Q4 and showed a 414% increase, and an all time high since April 2022 for meetings in the area.
- In Q4 2024, activity at Kalamata’s hub increased by 88% compared to Q3. However, from a yearly perspective, the H2 average was 90% lower than H1, clearly reflecting the impact of the Greek Navy drill aimed at disrupting the STS hub off its coast.
- After a decrease last Q, Senegal is back to its expected activity levels with 16 STS meetings during Q4 2024, an increase of 220% from Q3, and the highest number of meetings in the area since April 2022.
- Q4 2024 showed a 77% increase for STS engagements in the Black Sea when compared to Q3 2024. While this seems like a meaningful increase, this number might be affected by GPS jamming in the area, and it’s still much lower when compared to the same timeframe last year (a 68% decrease).
Shadow/Gray fleet
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- In Q4 2024, both the gray and shadow fleets remained pretty consistent, with +830 gray fleet and +1,600 shadow fleet vessels.
- Top three flags for both the shadow and gray fleets are Panama, Liberia, and Russia.
- All popular destinations remained basically the same. India reclaimed its top 4 spots from Spain, which disappeared completely from the top 10 destinations.
