The International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) published a study which assesses the potential for reducing emissions from ships in the North Atlantic Ocean by designating the region an Emission Control Area.
The North Atlantic Emission Control Area (AtlECA) would impose stricter regulations aimed at reducing emissions of sulfur oxides (SOx), fine particulate matter (PM2.5), and nitrogen oxides (NOx).
As explained, the possible AtlECA includes the territorial seas and exclusive economic zones of Spain, Portugal, France, the United Kingdom, Ireland, Iceland, the Faroe Islands, and Greenland, with potential expansion to include the Azores and Madeira archipelagos of Portugal and the Canary Islands of Spain. The results of this study are intended to be a part of a submission to the International Maritime Organization’s Marine Environment Protection Committee on designating the AtlECA, following the International Convention for the Prevention of Pollution from Ships (MARPOL) Annex VI requirements.
We estimate that the AtlECA designation could lead to significant emission reductions in pollutants. In 2030, if distillate fuel is used to comply with the ECA regulations, this could lead to an 82% reduction in SOx emissions, a 64% reduction in PM2.5, and a 36% reduction in black carbon (BC) emissions when compared to a scenario without ECA regulations.
..ICCT stated.
Additionally, we project that if the outermost regions of Portugal and Spain join the AtlECA, air pollution near these islands could be significantly reduced. The projected reductions include 84% in SOx, 67% in PM2.5, and 41% in BC emissions if distillate is used as the compliance fuel.
..the report added.
Shipping emissions and emission control area complance scenatios
Projecting future 2030 fuel demand
To project the future 2030 fuel demand, they used the ICCT’s global maritime fuel demand and emissions projection model Polaris (International Council on Clean Transportation, 2022). Polaris is used to predict fleet turnover and energy demand by ship type and fuel type. These projections, based on historical shipping demand reported by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD, 2021), account for technical
efficiency improvements under the IMO’s greenhouse gas policies.
For this project, they use the Polaris model to estimate growth in energy and fuel demand for all ship classes up to 2030. Future shipping activity is estimated using a linear projection from the historical shipping demand reported by UNCTAD, as explained above. The fundamental unit of analysis in Polaris is the individual vessel. The model considers the retirement of older vessels and introduces new ships to the global fleet to meet demand targets.
We expect the increase of shipping activity in the proposed AtlECA and outermost regions to align with the global growth trend. Therefore, we apply these growth coefficients to the hourly power demand in the study
area to estimate future power and fuel demand for ships in 2030.
..the report highlights.
Emission Control Area compliance scenarios
They model four 2030 AtlECA compliance scenarios in addition to a 2030 BusinessAs-Usual (BAU) scenario. They model two plausible scenarios and two extreme scenarios. In the plausible scenarios, they assume that only ships operating on VLSFO will be affected by ECA sulfur requirements.
In contrast, the extreme scenarios can be used to understand the minimum and maximum potential emissions reduction within the ECA. Additionally, they assume that ship power demand and associated fuel consumption will grow as predicted by the ICCT Polaris model.
The scenarios and assumptions used in this study are as follows:
- Business-As-Usual (2030): This assumes no AtlECA implementation in the study area. Consequently, vessels are expected to use fuel as predicted by the Polaris model.
- MGO Mix (plausible): This scenario assumes that the fleet operating on VLSFO will switch to MGO. Ships already using distillates, LNG, and methanol are not expected to change behavior. Ships predicted to have installed scrubbers will need to adjust performance to be equivalent to 0.1% fuel sulfur content, in contrast to the 0.5% sulfur content in the BAU scenario.
- ULSFO Mix (plausible): This scenario is similar to the MGO Mix scenario, with the distinction that ships operating on VLSFO will switch to ULSFO instead of MGO. It is assumed that the sulfur content of ULSFO does not exceed 0.1% while other properties and emissions remain similar to VLSFO.
- MGO Max (extreme): In this scenario, they assume that scrubbers are not allowed as an alternative sulfur compliance method and ship owners utilize only MGO for compliance. In this case, no ships will have scrubber installations in 2030.
- Scrubber Max (extreme): In this scenario, it is assumed that all ships currently using HFO with scrubbers will continue to do so. Ships currently operating on VLSFO will install scrubbers and use HFO instead of opting for 0.1% sulfur-compliant fuels. Like all other scenarios, the ships already using MGO, LNG, and methanol for compliance are not expected to change behavior.
Key findings
- The biggest reductions in emissions can be achieved when ships use distillate fuels such as marine gas oil (MGO) to comply with the Emission Control Area.
- Using ultra-low sulfur fuel oil (ULSFO) or heavy fuel oil (HFO) with scrubbers is not as effective at reducing sulfur oxides, particulate matter, or black carbon.
- In 2030, Tier III standards will reduce expected NOX emissions by about 3% below the Business-As-Usual (BAU) scenario if they apply only to ships built in 2027 or later. A gradual reduction in emissions is expected with fleet turnover. When all ships are retrofitted with Tier III standards, this option would lead to a potential reduction of up to 71% of NOX emissions.
