Maritime Strategies International (MSI) has predicted that tanker contracting in 2024 will reach its second highest level in history.
According to MSI, in the first 11 months of 2024 tanker contracting reached record levels, with 55 million deadweight tons (dwt) ordered, second only to the super-cycle year of 2006.
MSI’s proprietary market model for 10,000 dwt+ tanker orders has been revised upward by 20%, or 10.2 million dwt, for 2024 compared to its previous forecast. With a projected total of 60.8 million dwt, 2024 is about to record the second-highest level ever.
In addition, deliveries in 2025 are expected to rise with 19.4 million dwt anticipated to be delivered, the majority (around 12 million dwt) in the second half of the year. MSI highlights that from this point forward, deliveries will grow significantly due to the surge in contracting in 2023-2024, with deliveries for 2026 projected to reach 37 million dwt.
Between January and November, 22 million dwt were added to the VLCC orderbook, all of which are set to be built in Chinese shipyards. On average, five units were ordered monthly from July to November, MSI says.
Chinese owners accounted for the majority of new orders in the second half of 2024, following a trend where European and Middle Eastern owners made the majority of orders in the first half.
