The European Environment Agency (EEA) published a series of maps which present the scale of possible forest fires, floods, droughts and deluges that Europe could face by the end of the century, if no action is taken to tackle climate change and global warming.
The EEA states that the impact of climate change will be less severe if the efforts to reduce emissions are successful in keeping the global temperature increase well below 2°C, as required by the Paris Agreement. Any higher emissions scenario would lead to considerably greater climate change.
It is of great importance to minimize the risks from global climate change, followed by actions to reduce GHG emissions.
Recently, speaking during the World Economic Forum in Davos, Antonio Guterres, the Secretary General of the United Nations, highlighted that climate change is running faster than people who try to deal with it, adding that people will be firstly destroyed and not the planet.
The maps that EEA launched project that in Southern Europe severe droughts are expected to become a frequent phenomenon. In addition, drought frequency is also projected to increase in central and western Europe whereas it may decrease in some limited regions of northern Europe.
Also, it is projected that heavy rain could reach the largest increase, up to 35%, in central and eastern Europe, whereas Southern Europe could see increases in heavy rain of up to 25 %.
English cities including Norwich, Margate, Southend-on-Sea, Runcorn and Blackpool could also experience flooding covering more than 40% of the urban area.
Across the North Sea, Dutch cities including the Hague, Rotterdam and Leiden were predicted to face severe floods from an average one metre sea-level rise, which is forecast if emissions rise 4C–6C above pre-industrial levels. The model does not account for the Netherlands’ extensive flood-prevention measures, although many other countries have not taken such action. Meanwhile, large areas of Spain, Portugal and France would be grappling with desertification, with the worst-affected zones experiencing a two and half-fold increase in droughts under the worst-case scenario.
Under the possibility that emissions exceed 4C, France, southern Germany, the Balkans and the Arctic Circle will be under the threat of increased fire risk.
Failing to achieve the global heating limit below 2C will mean that central and eastern EU, from Bratislava in the west to Yaroslavl in the east, will be in line for sharp increase in “heavy rain events” during autumn and winter by the end of the century.
Blaž Kurnik, an EEA expert in climate change impacts and adaptation commented that
The number of extreme events and sea level rise will still continue to increase for the next decades to a century … Sea level rise, especially, can be problematic, because it is still increasing because of past emissions and the current concentration of greenhouse gases.
Adaptation will be a major step to prevent disruptions in the next decades of the century, he added.
The EEA has concluded it is possible to limit the rise in global temperatures to 2C above pre-industrial levels, as long as greenhouse gas concentrations peak during the next 15 to 29 years.
Concluding, the European Environmental Agency launched the “European environment – state and outlook 2020” providing information on dealing with the climate change, biodiversity loss and air and water pollution, highlighting that 2020 is a year to take action.
