IUMI Spring Statistics report growth on tanker, dry bulk, container and cruise fleets
The International Union of Marine Insurance (IUMI) has released its Spring Statistics which report on three key sectors: hull, cargo and energy.
Statistics report a general downward trend in total loss frequency in most vessel categories and also in major PA casualties, growth in the world tanker, dry bulk, container and cruise fleet, unchanged trends in world order book and a significant slowdown in scrapping levels since 2012. Also, statistics unveils that Clarksea Index freight rates have shown a gradual improvement since the economic downturn in 2008.
Further analysis as follows:
General downward trend in total loss frequency in most vessel categories:
- trend is not so marked for container tonnage or ‘non-cargo’ categories whilst more pronounced for general cargo, bulker and tanker tonnage,
- since 1997 the frequency of total loss as a percentage of the world fleet has more than halved by both the number of vessels and tonnage,
- there has been a reduced direct correlation between age of tonnage and frequency of total loss between 2005 – 2014,
- an overall increase in percentage of the frequency of heavy weather and grounding related total losses
General downward trend in major PA casualties:
- whilst the trend in respect of total losses is more inconsistent, the downward trend in major PA casualties is clear,
- virtually a year on year increase in frequency between 1998 2007,
- followed by a corresponding decrease year on year between 2008 2014,
- fairly consistent causation although the groundings show an increase relative to other causes.
Growth in the world tanker, dry bulk, container and cruise fleets is continuing:
- the rate of newbuilding deliveries has reduced since 2012, with a corresponding reduction in scrapping,
- the container vessel sector is clearly showing an increase in average size,
- the cruise fleet is inconsistent with cargo tonnage, newbuilding deliveries are stable since 2011, the scrapping frequency is stable,
- a consistent increase in average cruise vessel size is also evident,
- the average age is consistent despite a reduction in newbuilding deliveries in some sectors,
- although, a marked reduction in the average age of the bulker fleet, which may be reflected in a corresponding reduction in frequency of total loss and major PA losses.
Trends in world order book largely unchanged:
- tanker and dry bulk tonnage represents over 50% of tonnage on order as of 1st January 2015,
- continued uncertainty over delays, cancellations and renegotiations of existing orders,
- order book is dominated by Chinese yards, both by tonnage and number of vessels, although not by contracted value where South Korea represents the largest order book,
- total contracted order book as of 1st January 2015 is $316.7bn, of which offshore support and other specialist vessel types represent over one third by value.
Clarksea Index indicates freight rates showing a gradual improvement since the economic downturn in 2008
- dry bulk freight rates remain depressed whilst tanker rates are more volatile,
- the longer term impact of the oil price, in particular for the tanker and offshore sectors, is yet to become apparent,
- there is evidence of an increase in the number of tankers deploying as storage units.
Scrapping levels have shown a significant slowdown since 2012:
- total dwt tonnage scrapped during 2014 is down by 30% since 2012,
- the slowdown is most evident in the dry bulk sector with 2.2% of the world bulker fleet by dwt scrapped in 2014,
- tanker scrapping rate is at 1.6% of the world fleet during 2014.
Source: IUMI – International Union of Marine Insurance
