“Renewable Energy Targets in 2022: A guide to design,” released by the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) at the UN Climate Change Conference COP27, assesses the level of renewable energy ambition in national climate pledges and benchmarks targets against the global climate goal of limiting temperature rise to 1.5°C.
The report shows the collective level of energy transition ambition to date is not enough despite the Glasgow Climate Pact to upgrade 2030 targets in national pledges.
Before this report, IRENA’s World Energy Transitions Outlook saw half of the energy consumed in 2050 coming from electricity. 90% of all decarbonisation will involve renewable energy through direct supply of low-cost power, efficiency, electrification, sustainable bioenergy and green hydrogen. However, achieving the 2050 climate target will depend on sufficient action by 2030.
IRENA’s new analysis finds that by 2030, countries are targeting to reach 5.4 terawatts (TW) of installed renewable power capacity. This would only be half of the 10.8 TW of installed capacity needed according to IRENA’s 1.5°C Scenario. To achieve net zero, the targeted renewable power capacity by 2030 would have to double compared to the level of ambition in current targets.
This is readily achievable today as current renewable power targets lag recent deployment levels. To achieve current targets by 2030, countries would need to add 2.3 TW of capacity, equivalent to average yearly additions of 259 gigawatts (GW) in the next nine years. T
his is below the actual installed capacity added in the past two years: in 2020 and 2021, despite the complications that resulted from the pandemic and consequent supply chain disruptions, the world added almost 261 GW each year.
Furthermore, renewable power targeted by 2030 remains concentrated in a few regions globally. Asia makes up half of the global targeted capacity, followed by Europe and North America.
In comparison, the Middle East and North Africa account for just 3% of global deployment targets for 2030, despite the region’s high potential. And Sub-Saharan Africa accounts for just over 2 per cent of total global for 2030.
The countries targeting the highest level of deployment are all part of the G20, making up almost 90% of the global aggregated target. Although they make up a small share of past renewable deployment, aggregated targets by least developed countries (LDCs) and small island developing states (SIDS) would double their current renewable capacity.
IRENA’s report is a warning to the international community telling them that renewables offer a readily achievable climate solution but require immediate action. Climate pledges must enhance ambition to unlock the full and untapped potential of renewables
IRENA’s Director-General Francesco La Camera said, adding that “any near-term shortfall in action will further reduce the chance of keeping 1.5°C within reach. Under the COP27 slogan ‘together for implementation’ we must move from promises to concrete solutions to benefit people and communities on the ground.”
Recommendations
#1 Pledges should be significantly enhanced to unlock the full potential of renewable energy: Decision makers at the national, subnational, city and corporate levels need to increase the level of ambition of the commitments to renewable energy in their climate pledges (including net zero pledges). Net zero targets must be backed by concrete plans to develop and deploy renewable energy in all end uses. Renewable energy deployment targets need to increase sharply to reflect long-term pathways towards net zero emissions.
#2 For renewable energy targets to be useful, they need to be ambitious enough: In order to keep the world on track to achieving carbon neutrality by 2050, the level of ambition of renewable energy power targets set for 2030 needs to at least double. At the same time, more targets need to be set for renewables in heating and cooling, and transport.
#3 Targets need to be designed to serve country objectives: The main function of targets is to signal a country’s long-term political commitment to renewable energy, which is required to attract the investment needed – public and private – to develop the sector. The more detailed, specific and credible the target is, the more likely it will be to drive deployment, including through increased market confidence. This can ultimately translate into lower costs of capital and hence more project development.
#4 Aspirational targets should become binding: Targets are considered mandatory or binding when they pass into law. This means that the targets have been ratified by the executive or legislative body, which gives them credibility in the eyes of potential investors and makes it harder for any future government, or a governing party, to repeal the targets.