As the International Chamber of Shipping (ICS) explains in their Leadership Insights newsletter story that antifragility not only withstands disruptions but thrives and evolves because of them.
Understanding antifragility
Antifragility, a concept introduced by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, describes systems that improve under stress and disorder. Tony Lugg, Founder of supply chain technology firm Project Argus, explains: “Turbulence has become a hallmark feature of the contemporary global supply chain following the COVID-19 pandemic.” Unlike fragile systems that break under stress or resilient systems that recover, antifragile supply chains adapt and evolve, reducing reliance on single points of failure.
According to Paul Saunders, Head of Product Strategy and Chief Evangelist Cloud ERP for German multinational software company SAP, applying an antifragility strategy starts by decentralising operations and creating redundancy across suppliers and production sites.
Speaking to ICS Leadership Insights, he said that planning, analytics, and real-time metrics all play a key role in achieving antifragility. But, he added, one of the biggest capability gaps right now is the right mindset. “Antifragility requires flexibility and experimentation,” he said. “If a company is one that loves its processes more than its outcomes, then this is not for them.”
Tim Payne, Vice President Research and Gartner Fellow at Gartner, told ICS Leadership Insights that adopting an antifragile supply chain empowers companies to make better decisions on how they can change (agility) and how quickly (responsiveness) by having “better knowledge of the impact of uncertainty in resource performance on value output”.
Antifragility also thrives on information and learning from stressors. Modern supply chains can achieve this by utilising real-time data analytics, machine learning, and artificial intelligence to gain insights into patterns of disruption, customer demand fluctuations, and supply chain inefficiencies. Rather than simply reacting to disruptions, an antifragile supply chain uses data to predict potential issues, explore new opportunities, and continuously optimise processes.
Another key component, according to Lugg, is that supply chain partners should not be seen through an “us versus them” lens, but instead in a collaborative environment that encourages entrepreneurial thinking.
Different points on a continuum
Zera Zheng, Global Head of Business Resilience Consulting at Maersk, does not believe that antifragility is replacing resilience. She told ICS Leadership Insights: “Resilience aims to manage vulnerabilities rather than eliminate all dependencies, which is impractical in the real world.”
Unless a company controls every aspect of its operations, she noted, from raw materials to marketing and sales, it will inevitably rely on external parties. “These partners will vary in importance, making it impossible to distribute the workload equally. As a result, certain dependencies are unavoidable,” Zheng explained.
Underscoring the realities of profit-driven organisations, she pointed out that companies are more focused on achieving the highest returns “rather than striving for complete independence in the marketplace.”
Project Argus’ Lugg agreed that an antifragile model is not always suitable due to liability concerns, leading management to adopt a purely conservative approach. “These situations often arise in heavily regulated sectors, such as pharmaceuticals,” he said. “However, I would suggest that a hybrid model could be implemented if the necessary skills exist within the logistics team or if those skills can be outsourced to a 4PL service operating in this sphere.”
