The International Chamber of Shipping (ICS) has published its latest Barometer report, revealing a steady decline in confidence among global maritime leaders to manage the risks posed by increasing political instability, alongside a growing array of interconnected threats.
The evolving risk landscape
According to the report, the risk landscape for shipping is often defined by a single dominant issue that is not only cause for concern itself but complicates other factors that it intersects with. The pandemic and global recession have been these risk multipliers in the past but have lost ground to political instability in recent years. In a world that has fast become more volatile and unpredictable, maritime leaders have identified political instability as the biggest risk to their operations for the second year running – with impact demonstrated on multiple other factors.
This geopolitical instability is making and reshaping our business operating environments, adding caution and uncertainty to commercial decisions, in addition to rewriting long-standing trade relationships and trade routes. These all have costly implications for our industry and the wider economy, strengthening the possibility of a global recession.
… said ICS Chairman, Emanuele Grimaldi
Political instability and its ripple effects
This instability underpins all other top risk factors identified by respondents – administrative burden, trade barriers and cyber-attacks – all closely tied to governments and geopolitics. Cyber-attacks by state and non-state actors have increased. A 2025 report by the US Government Accountability Office warns of urgent action needed in the maritime sector to address cybersecurity vulnerabilities that leave it open to such threats. The wider industry’s increasing reliance on digital infrastructure and AI keeps this risk high on the agenda.
Confidence in managing instability declines
Analysis of four years of ICS Maritime Barometer survey data reveals a decline in maritime leaders’ confidence to manage the risks from political instability, which is unsurprising given the pain points over the past few years. Political polarisation and global conflict have continued to escalate in the wake of 2024, which marked one of the biggest global election years in history. Companies have had to adapt to rapidly changing operational landscapes, with crew and vessels too often seen as collateral damage and malicious physical attacks remaining a high concern.
Trade tensions and shifting opportunities
That said, shipping is known to be resilient. And while the ongoing US-China trade war adds further uncertainty, it also opens new opportunities as trade is re-routed and new deals are explored between nations and the EU to secure greater supply chain stability. China looks set to grow its trade with the Global South, while Latin American countries are seeing greater export opportunities as their goods become more attractive to US and global buyers.
Regulatory developments and green transition
Regulations remain the most significant factor among key green transition issues impacting business operations. Much of this change is driven by evolving rules from the EU and IMO. The outcomes in 2025 from the IMO’s MEPC 83 meeting, including the Net Zero Framework, could sustain the high levels of industry confidence recorded in this year’s survey to handle the impact from regulations and market-based measures, if supported by pragmatic policies that are easy to work with and operate in practice.
Fuel choices reflect pragmatic risk management
Given the uncertainty around global politics and changing decarbonisation regulation, maritime leaders are decidedly more bullish towards tried and tested fuel options – shying away from their confidence in all near-zero and zero alternative fuels and technologies over the next decade. Instead, LNG, HFO with abatement technology, and biofuels are clear frontrunners in this year’s findings – with a majority of 55% of respondents backing LNG.
Infrastructure gaps slow alternative fuels
Methanol and ammonia remain key future fuel choices, but, as the realities hampering alternative fuel availability and infrastructure become clearer, leaders appear to be more comfortable planning operations around fuels with established infrastructure, known bunkering and safety procedures and clearer cost profiles. Shipping risks missing its decarbonisation targets without strong economic and regulatory signals plus increased public funding – which currently sits at a four-year low in confidence and one of the top impact factors.
Investment is key to enabling transition
Both public and private investment are needed to drive final investment decisions in the energy sector and enable scalable adoption of low emission fuels and technologies at the rate required for a rapid green transition. The economics of future fuels can otherwise seem insurmountable for industry, with high initial production costs, therefore high fuel costs, only able to fall with significant investments and deployment of infrastructure and technology. It is up to the big players, including governments and banks, to buoy the confidence of shipping leaders and ensure that there is a firm foundation for more ambition on the energy transition front.
Collaboration for resilience and sustainability
Given the pressing concerns of political instability, regulation and public funding, closer collaboration between industry, governments and regulators is essential if shipping and the wider maritime sector are to ensure sustainable and resilient business operations.
