The pandemic was at the top of concerns in the latest Global Maritime Issues Monitor 2020, with 93% of respondents saying the pandemic makes a global economic crisis more likely. A pandemic was also identified as the issue that the maritime industry feels the least prepared for, out of 19 other issues.
The most impressive about the pandemic is the speed at which it disrupted everything. Pandemic have always happened. But the world we now live can be quickly disrupted. We have to think about our preparations, not if it happens again, but for the next time it happens again,
…said Richard Turner, President of IUMI, during the report’s online launch earlier this week.
The Global Maritime Issues Monitor 2020 was published Tuesday by the Global Maritime Forum, Marsh, and IUMI, looking at some of the critical issues facing the maritime industry, after surveying maritime decisionmakers from six continents.
With the pandemic the dominant global issue for many months, the survey asked respondents how they see COVID-19 affecting the likelihood of other issues. The most resounding response related to the pandemic’s impact on a potential global economic crisis: 93% of respondents said the pandemic makes such a crisis more likely.
In their comments to an open-ended question in the survey, respondents highlighted other potential impacts from the pandemic:
- 73 % of respondents think the pandemic makes geopolitical tension more likely. Particularly, respondents anticipate escalation in the conflict between the US and China .
- 72 % think trading patterns are more likely to change. Respondents foresee more regionalization, near-shoring, domestic production of essential goods, less dependence on China, and more .
- 48 % said the pandemic will increase the societal demand for sustainability. In fact, of all the environmental issues, this showed the sharpest increase in likelihood due to the pandemic.
- 46 % said COVID-19 increases the likelihood of governance failure. As noted by several respondents, many seafarers experienced great difficulties during the pandemic, sometimes with little relief from authorities.
- 45 % said insufficient access to finance increased in likelihood compared to last year. Many respondents commented that this could lead to bankruptcies and consolidation, increased scrapping of old ships, and lower rates of new-build orders .
- 35 % said that the main issue the pandemic made less likely is fuel price increases.
2020 is the first year where pandemics were an issue in the annual ranking and the report revealed that this is the issue the maritime industry feels the least prepared. Immediately, it received the lowest preparedness score of the 19 global issues included in the survey.
Interestingly however, pandemics — the driver of the current economic downturn — ranked relatively low, at number 10, in terms of likelihood.
This could be a red flag if it means that companies believe that COVID-19 is a “one and done”, and that the next pandemic will be a long way off.
However, the score still indicates that respondents perceive a new pandemic as likely in the coming decade.
One key thing to question is about our preparedness. We might not be masters in case of e.g. a cyber attack or a flooding, but we can look at how we can prepare for these events. This is at the individual organization but also collectively,
…added Kasper Søgaard, Head of Research, GMF.
