Britannia P&I Club and CONOVAH explore the impact of psychology in safety-critical situations, such as the role of cognitive bias in decision making.
According to the publication “Emotions, Biases, and Defences, the Hidden Factors in Decision-Making at Sea”, in decision-making, particularly in highstakes settings like overseeing the safety of a merchant ship, understanding how minds work can be a lifesaver. The human mind, for all its analytical prowess, is prone to certain cognitive biases that can influence our judgement in significant ways:
Confirmation bias
This is a particularly common bias that makes us pay attention to information that confirms what we already believe and disregard information that challenges our preconceptions. For example, a ship captain planning a voyage might place undue emphasis on favourable weather reports while sidelining storm warnings. The consequence could be embarking on a risky route without adequately preparing for bad weather conditions.
Availability heuristic
Here, our judgement is shaped by what is immediately available to our memory. In a maritime context, a ship’s crew might concentrate their safety measures on avoiding the kinds of accidents that have recently occurred, or those that were most talked about during their safety briefings. This may lead to neglecting other potential hazards that are less vivid but equally dangerous.
Anchoring bias
This bias involves giving disproportionate weight to the first piece of information received, which can serve as an “anchor” for future decisions. For example, if a ship’s management receives a high initial quote for upgrading safety equipment, this could skew their budget expectations and decisionmaking when evaluating other vendors, even if more cost-effective and equally reliable solutions are available.
Overconfidence bias
With this bias, individuals tend to overestimate their own skills or the accuracy of their predictions. A pilot who has successfully navigated difficult routes in the past may become overconfident and underestimate new or different challenges, potentially overlooking essential safety precautions.
Hindsight bias
This is a post-event bias where people think an event was more predictable after it has occurred. For instance, after a ship has run aground, the crew might believe they could have easily avoided the accident, underestimating the various factors like poor visibility and high winds that complicated the decisionmaking process at the time.
Sunk cost fallacy
This occurs when individuals continue to invest in a failing course of action simply because they have already invested time, effort, or money. In a nautical setting, a chief engineer might continue attempts to repair a problematic engine despite contrary advice, based purely on the reasoning that a lot of time has already been invested in the repairs.
Being consciously aware of cognitive bias is the first step towards safeguarding against it. It enables maritime professionals to introspectively evaluate their decision-making processes, consult more widely, and adhere to established protocols, thus enhancing the quality of their choices in crucial situations.
Exploring cognitive biases in decision-making
At the next safety group meeting on board, the team may want to explore types of cognitive bias and their potential impact on decision-making. Encourage open discussions to foster a deeper understanding of how biases can influence choices in safety-critical situations.
- Gather the safety group: Assemble the safety group on board for the safety meeting. Ensure all relevant team members are present, including the captain, officers, crew members, and safety officers.
- Introduce the topic: Begin the meeting by briefly introducing the concept of cognitive biases and their relevance in decision-making. Mention that cognitive biases are natural tendencies that can influence our perceptions, judgments, and choices, even in safety-critical situations.
- Present the examples: Use the examples of cognitive biases previously discussed in the guide (e.g., confirmation bias, availability heuristic, anchoring bias, and overconfidence bias). Briefly explain each bias and how it can manifest in decision-making scenarios aboard the vessel.
- Group discussion: Divide the safety group into smaller discussion groups, ideally with diverse roles and perspectives represented in each group. Assign one or two cognitive biases to each group.
- Reflect on past experiences: In their respective groups, encourage the participants to share instances or situations where they believe cognitive biases might have influenced safety decisions on board. It could be incidents, near-misses, or routine operational choices.
Identify mitigation strategies: Prompt the groups to brainstorm strategies for mitigating the impact of cognitive biases on decision-making. Encourage them to think about methods to counteract each specific bias and how to foster a culture of open communication and self-awareness. - Group presentations: After a designated discussion time, reconvene as a whole group. Ask each group to share their reflections and key insights from their discussions. Emphasise the importance of learning from past experiences and continuously improving safety practices.
- Open dialogue: Facilitate an open discussion where participants can ask questions, share further examples, or express their thoughts on the topic. Encourage an environment of trust and openness to promote valuable insights.
- Action points: Summarise the key takeaways and action points from the exercise. Discuss how the insights gained can be implemented to enhance safety practices and decision-making on board.
- Follow-up: Encourage ongoing discussions on cognitive biases and decision-making in future safety meetings. Consider incorporating similar reflection exercises periodically to reinforce awareness and learning.
To remind, During the 2023 SAFETY4SEA Athens Forum, Dionysios Peppas, Director, Pantheon Tankers Management Ltd, focused on various thinking and perception patterns that influence decision making and shipboard life. He explained that cognitive biases can get in the way of subjective thinking and are often a result of the brain’s attempt to simplify information processing, decision-making, problem-solving, and judgment.
