Specifically, the report forecasts that once the fuel’s logistics chain has been fully developed – including the construction of 150m tonnes per year of incremental production capacity – green ammonia would have a cost similar to today’s compliant oil-based bunkers.
The paper explains the current production of ammonia supplied by the energy from the fossil fuels (the so called conventional ammonia) and analyzes the possibility to implement a supply chain powered by renewable energy only (producing the so called green ammonia).
Based on a scenario where the 30% of the shipping industry is converted to this fuel, the study assesses the required amount of the product and the consequent demand of renewable energy and of territory to secure it.
Ammonia developments are taking place across the shipping industry; For instance, recently, NYK Line, Japan Marine United Corporation, and Nippon Kaiji Kyokai (ClassNK) signed a joint R&D agreement for the commercialization of an ammonia-fueled ammonia gas carrier (AFAGC).
Concluding, the study notes that
Ernest Hemmingway (sic) once said that people tend to go bankrupt in two ways – gradually then suddenly. Technological change and transitions tend to happen in the same way, what once seemed impossible and then unfeasible, becomes possible and then finally the standard.
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