GMS: Global stock markets take unkindly to US tariffs

Over USD 3 trillion was wiped out from investor pockets, as consumers globally have yet to see a dramatic impact filter through to their collective pockets. As nations retaliated across the board almost immediately and China even slapped reciprocal tariffs on the U.S., it may be sooner rather than later that the impacts of this situation are already at the doorsteps of exporting nations (to the U.S.) as the situation is still freshly unfolding across all nations.

And although President Trump is known for taking hardline positions as he golfed while the markets were in free fall, Republicans and Democrats are reportedly taking steps to pass laws that would curb the powers of the Executive Branch through the unfolding lunacy. The outpouring of protests may lead to a softened (or at the very least a negotiated position) from Trump’s side somewhere down the line – hopefully much sooner rather than later.

Notwithstanding, the immediate effects were certainly dramatic as this week, oil suffered the most egregious of collapses falling to USD 62 per barrel, a number not seen since August 2021. With OPEC+ countries vowing to increase supply as global demand eases on the back of tariffs and an uncertain economic future, global trade also seems to be taking a hit with the Baltic’s dry sea freight index slumping another 3.3% down to a one-month low.

The global ship recycling sector also witnessed some interesting activity as not only have local steel plate prices continued to climb in India, but they also fell in China and flatlined in both Bangladesh and Pakistan. On the currencies front, while some reported improvements (India), others declined with Turkey surprising the industry, reporting no change this week. Recycling activity too has somewhat inevitably been picking up in sub-continent markets over the last few weeks as the number of deliveries greatly improved of late, and this week has seen the various waterfronts take a beating with no fresh arrivals in Bangladesh, while India and Pakistan snared just one each.

Even Bangladeshi prices that climbed briefly following a dearth of tonnage seem to have settled as there is no tonnage to bid on, and Indian & Pakistani recyclers remain cautious & tentative in their offerings on fresh tonnage in light of the recent U.S. sanctions saga, while simultaneously observing markets to see what the overall impact on prices and potential renewed dumping of cheap Chinese steel into the sub-continent could spell for their purchases, before presenting fresh offers on tonnage at numbers that could conceivably be far lower in a post-tariff world.

With minimum activity taking place in Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Turkey thanks to Eid celebrations and holidays that have kept most markets closed through this week, the outcome of Bangladeshi restriction on imports remains unresolved on the back of the March 31st deadline for local recyclers, within which infrastructure updates at all domestic ship recycling yards were to commence, leaving the fate of pending deliveries through the upcoming tide(s) an uncertainty.

Overall, while we may be witnessing an overreaction to a hardline, exaggerated, and thoughtless action from the highest office in the U.S., rather than collectively forecasting doom and gloom for global trade, a more pragmatic long-term view may be needed to navigate through these troubled waters together.

For Week 14 of 2025, GMS Market Rankings / vessel indications are as below: