New research from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill and collaborators discovered that most marine life in marine protected areas will not be able to handle warming ocean temperatures caused by greenhouse gas emissions.
Marine protected areas aim to protect threatened marine life from the effects of fishing and other activities like mineral and oil extraction. The study found that with continued emissions, the protections currently in place won’t matter, because by 2100, warming and reduced oxygen concentration will make marine protected areas a place not viable to live in by most species currently living in those areas.
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The study was published today in Nature Climate Change, predicts that under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 emissions scenario, better known as the “business as usual scenario,” marine protected areas will warm by 2.8 degrees Celsius (or 5 degrees Fahrenheit) by 2100.
The study concludes that such warming would destroy the species and ecosystems currently located in marine protected areas. This could lead to extinctions of some of the world’s most unique animals, loss of biodiversity, and changes in ocean food-webs. It could also have negative impacts on the productivity of fisheries and on tourism revenue.
The study also estimated the year in which marine protected areas in different ecoregions would cross critical thresholds beyond which most species wouldn’t be able to handle the change. For many areas in the tropics, this will happen as soon as the mid-21st century.
- There are 8,236 marine protected areas around the world, although they only cover about 4 percent of the surface of the ocean.
- The projected warming of 2.8 degrees Celius (or 5 degrees Fahrenheit) by 2100 would fundamentally disrupt the ecosystems currently located in marine protected areas.
- Mean sea-surface temperatures within marine protected areas are projected to increase 0.034 degrees Celsius (or 0.061 degrees Fahrenheit) per year.
- Marine protected areas in the Arctic and Antarctic are projected to warm especially quickly, threatening numerous marine mammals like polar bears and penguins.
- The marine protected areas at the greatest risk include those in the Arctic and Antarctic, in the northwest Atlantic, and the newly designated no-take reserves off the northern Galápagos islands Darwin and Wolf.
The research was conducted in collaboration with researchers at Florida Institute of Technology, Polar Bears International, University of Southampton, Memorial University of Newfoundland, Marine Conservation Institute, NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory, University of Miami and the National Oceanography Centre.
See more information in the study “Climate change threatens the world’s marine protected areas.”
