The Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC) published the first edition of its Global Offshore Wind Report, analyzing the prospects for the global offshore wind market. The report includes forecast data, market-level analysis and review of efforts to limit costs.
The global offshore market has grown by an average of 21% each year since 2013, achieving total installations of 23 GW.
Over 4 GW of new capacity was installed each year in 2017 and 2018, accounting for 8% of the total new installations during both years. Now, for the first time, China was the largest offshore market in 2018 based on new installations, followed by the UK and Germany.
The report also provides a market outlook representing a “business-as-usual” (BAU) scenario which does not include further technical development or opportunities for offshore wind, and an upside scenario which captures the additional potential.
[smlsubform prepend=”GET THE SAFETY4SEA IN YOUR INBOX!” showname=false emailtxt=”” emailholder=”Enter your email address” showsubmit=true submittxt=”Submit” jsthanks=false thankyou=”Thank you for subscribing to our mailing list”]
The BAU scenario forecasts double-digit growth for the global offshore market based on current policies and expected auctions and tenders. This scenario makes annual installations of 15 to 20 GW after 2025 realistic based on growth in China and other Asian markets, accounting for 165 GW of new installed capacity worldwide between now and 2030. This would increase the total installed capacity to almost 190 GW.
The upside scenario considers additional potential like the advancement of floating technology, increased cost competitiveness and, thus, greater volume in mature markets, along with the opening of new offshore markets.
According to this scenario, a more positive outlook of over 200 GW new installed capacity between now and 2030 is possible, totalling around 210 GW installed capacity.
Karin Ohlenforst, Director of Market Intelligence at GWEC, said:
We are standing within reach of a truly global offshore wind industry. Based on government targets, auction results, and pipeline data we expect to see 190 GW of new capacity to be installed by 2030, but this does not represent the full potential of offshore wind
In addition, market and regional highlights include the following:
- Europe: Short-term, the European offshore market will remain flat with few projects reaching installation and COD during 2020, however, the cost competitiveness of European offshore will remain a key driver for volume. The Sector Deal in the UK provides a stable outlook, while volumes for Germany have still not increased despite government’s awareness. Total installed capacity for the region under the BAU scenario is expected to be 78 GW by 2030;
- Asia: The Asian offshore market including China is expected to become the largest offshore region globally with key growth markets including Taiwan, Vietnam, Japan, India and South Korea. Total installed capacity for the region under the BAU scenario is 100 GW by 2030;
- US: First installation of large-scale projects expected between 2021 and 2023 bringing total installations to 2 GW by 2025, potential for 10 GW total installations towards 2030 with increasing experience and maturing of the local supply chain.
