Dryad Global: Attacks on Ukraine’s ports likely to escalate

According to Dryad Global, the maritime security landscape saw a dramatic escalation this week with one of the largest coordinated strikes on Ukraine’s port infrastructure since the onset of the war. On 23 May 2025, Russian forces targeted the ports of Odesa and Chernomorsk in an operation that deployed 367 drones and missiles across Ukraine.

While Moscow claims the attacks were aimed at military assets, such as a containership allegedly carrying drones and ammunition, the damage to civilian port infrastructure is undeniable. The strikes have disrupted cargo handling and grain export operations just as Ukraine’s port exports had begun recovering to pre-war levels, supported by a Navy-secured maritime corridor.

Dryad Global now assesses the likelihood of intensified Russian attacks on Ukraine’s ports and Black Sea shipping at 70–80%, with elevated threats from naval mines, GPS interference as well as soaring war risk insurance premiums, as a result of incidents between the two nations and the collapse of March’s fragile ceasefire.

Repairs to the damaged ports are expected to take months to over a year, hindering global grain supply chains at a time of mounting food security concerns.

Other global maritime security developments

• Red Sea: Houthi forces have declared a blockade on Israel’s Port of Haifa, potentially reopening tensions in the region.
• Baltic Sea: Russian naval escorts are increasing pressure in the region’s maritime stand-off with NATO.
• Indian Ocean: An oil spill disaster is unfolding off India’s coast, as responders race to contain environmental damage.
• Southeast Asia: ReCAAP reports six armed robbery incidents between 20-26 May.
• Cybersecurity Alert: The U.S. Coast Guard warns of a rising number of shipboard cyberattack attempts, underscoring the need for robust digital defense strategies.
• Global Intelligence: The UK and allies have exposed a new Russian campaign targeting western logistics and tech sectors.