UK maritime research firm Drewry forecasts a new wave of canceled sailing in the following weeks although they believe it will have less impact on shippers, commenting that τη number of sailings cancelled by carriers in the 2-week period starting 28 September will be 6 times the number for the 2-week period starting 14 September.
Specifically, Philip Damas, Director, Head of Drewry Supply Chain Advisors, refers to the sailing cancellations arising from the COVID-19 pandemic and notes that shippers have been relieved to see ocean carriers limiting the number of cancellations over recent weeks, to an average of just four, in each week of September.
During the 2-week period from 28 September, 58% of the 24 cancelled sailings are on the transpacific route, 38% on the Asia-North Europe/Mediterranean route and only 4% on the transatlantic route.
The sailing cancellations in the transpacific trade appear to be at a level in line with the seasonality seen in previous years. Drewry notes that this reduction in capacity through blank sailings will only moderately reduce the capacity provided by transpacific carriers this October.
According to the Cancelled Sailings Tracker Report, carriers have increased total ship capacity from Asia to the East and West Coast of North America by 11% between September 2019 and September 2020. It is probably not a coincidence that transpacific carriers are adding capacity back, as Chinese regulators said in September that they were asking carriers why transpacific rates had risen so much and are “hoping” to see more capacity offered to the transpacific market. The same cannot be said of the Asia-Europe trade.
Damas concludes that
Between September 2019 and September 2020, the total capacity of Asia-North Europe/Mediterranean route declined by 1%. This partly reflects less buoyant demand for Asian imports in Europe than in North America. The cancellations of sailings on the Asia-North Europe & Mediterranean this year appear to be higher than last year.
