The exponential growth of offshore wind power will be the main driver of a nine-fold increase in demand for ocean space by the middle of the century, according to DNV’s Ocean’s Future to 2050 report.
n fact, the report predicts that offshore wind will overtake oil and gas as the dominant ocean-based industry in less than thirty years. Which will increase demand for customized support vessels capable of operating in harsh conditions.
Offshore wind will overtake the oil and gas sector to receive the largest investments in the Blue Economy
- Offshore wind will grow from a small base to account for 50% of ocean capital expenditure (capex) in 2050.
- Over the same timeframe, the oil and gas industry will shrink from 80% of total capex to just 25%.
- By 2050, offshore wind will provide about as much energy as offshore oil, the production of which will shrink 51% compared with 2019 levels.
- Capex in the Blue Economy will reduce from USD 517 billion in 2018 to USD 461 billion in 2050. Operational expenditure (opex) will grow more slowly than global GDP.
The Blue Economy will be dominated by Asia
- Greater China will establish itself as the global powerhouse of the Blue Economy and its leading investor by 2050.
- Europe will maintain a strong position, growing from 11% to 14% of capex in the next three decades.
There will be a 9-fold increase in demand for ocean space for aquaculture and energy production
- Offshore wind will require 82% of the total occupied area by 2050.
- Growth in demand for ocean area from aquaculture and energy production in the Indian
- Subcontinent, is set to increase 50-fold. In North America, and the Middle East and North Africa spatial requirements will grow 30-fold.
The energy transition and increasing purchasing power of Asia will alter outlook for shipping
- After years of faster-than-GDP growth, seaborne trade will only grow 35% to 2050, while global GDP almost doubles.
- This is due to increased consumption in Asia combined with the decline of coal and oil transport.
- The merchant fleet sees bulk remaining the largest segment in tonnage, even as the coal trade declines, while tankers are overtaken by container vessels as the second largest segment. Gas carriers will outpace oil product tankers.
- New special vessel segments will emerge to serve the offshore wind industry. Special vessels will grow 31% in tonnage and 53% in value to 2050.
- COVID 19 will have no long-term impact on cruise industry and berth capacity will triple by 2050.