Subscribe to our Mailing Lists (It's free!)
Friday, June 9, 2023
SAFETY4SEA
  • Home
  • Safety
    • All
    • Accidents
    • Alerts
    • Loss Prevention
    • Maritime Health
    • Regulation
    • Safety
    • Seafarers
    • Security
    NTSB Investigation

    Lessons learned: Loss of redundancy in diving bell launch and recovery PLC system

    Lessons learned: Steam and water released from filter

    Lessons learned: Disposable vape self-ignition

    maritime mental health

    Seafarers Happiness Index 2023Q1: Seafarers are unsatisfied with onboard fitness and health benefits

    Cargo fires: An issue that needs to be tackled

    Cargo fires: An issue that needs to be tackled

  • SEAFiT
    • All
    • Intellectual
    • Mental
    • Physical
    • Social
    • Spiritual
    Book Review: A role model for ship managers

    Book review: The politics of sustainability in the Arctic

    contemplation as a spiritual practice

    Contemplation: Directing the mind towards what’s important

    power of hug

    The power of hugging: How it affects our health

    Impostor Syndrome

    Mental Health Focus: How to deal with Impostor Syndrome

  • Green
    • All
    • Arctic
    • Ballast
    • Emissions
    • Fuels
    • Green Shipping
    • Pollution
    • Ship Recycling
    • Technology
    HHI wins AiP from KR for tank shape optimized for liquefied fuels

    HHI wins AiP from KR for tank shape optimized for liquefied fuels

    Four major parties to assess emissions throughout the life cycle of LNG carrier

    Four major parties to assess emissions throughout the life cycle of LNG carrier

    Port of Klaipeda and Proman shake hands on methanol bunkering

    Port of Klaipeda and Proman shake hands on methanol bunkering

    USA law

    U.S. Senators introduce legislation to eliminate in-port ship emissions

  • Smart
    • All
    • Connectivity
    • Cyber Security
    • E-navigation
    • Energy Efficiency
    • Maritime Software
    • Smart
    Cyber security: What it means for the shipping industry

    Cyber security: What it means for the shipping industry

    DNV Maritime Cyber Priority 2023: Shipping faces 5 major cyber security challenges

    DNV Maritime Cyber Priority 2023: Shipping faces 5 major cyber security challenges

    New Mission to Seafarers app strengthens welfare support

    New Mission to Seafarers app strengthens welfare support

    ABS awards AIP to SHI for structural health monitoring system

    ABS awards AIP to SHI for structural health monitoring system

  • Risk
    • All
    • CIC
    • Detentions
    • Fines
    • PSC Case Studies
    • PSC Focus
    • Vetting
    AMSA bans second vessel in a week

    AMSA bans second vessel in a week

    Ship detentions in Paris MoU in February 2021

    AMSA bans bulk carrier Babuza Wisdom for 90 days

    tanker arrested in singapore

    AMSA convicts master and company after pilot ladder injury

    amsa planned maintenance fic

    OCIMF Annual Report 2023: Key amendments and additions under SIRE 2.0

  • Others
    • All
    • Diversity in shipping
    • Maritime Knowledge
    • Offshore
    • Ports
    • Reports
    • Shipping
    • Sustainability
    • Videos
    baltic exchange

    Baltic Exchange: Maritime market highlights 5 – 9 June

    Port of Klaipeda and Proman shake hands on methanol bunkering

    Port of Klaipeda and Proman shake hands on methanol bunkering

    StenaRoRo’s ESG reporting making leaps due to Mercy Ships partnership

    StenaRoRo’s ESG reporting making leaps due to Mercy Ships partnership

    IWSA opens voting for “Wind Ship – the Future” poster design contest

    IWSA opens voting for “Wind Ship – the Future” poster design contest

  • Columns
    The tides are changing at Alang

    The tides are changing at Alang

    Ship recycling: A solution for plastic pollution and environmental protection

    Ship recycling: A solution for plastic pollution and environmental protection

    Back To The Future: How Rotor Sails are now a credible option to tackle climate challenge

    Back To The Future: How Rotor Sails are now a credible option to tackle climate challenge

    Trending Tags

    • Book Review
    • Career Paths
    • Industry Voices
    • Interviews
    • Maripedia
    • Maritime History
    • Resilience
    • Seafarers Stories
    • SeaSense
    • Wellness Corner
  • Events
  • Plus
No Result
View All Result
  • Home
  • Safety
    • All
    • Accidents
    • Alerts
    • Loss Prevention
    • Maritime Health
    • Regulation
    • Safety
    • Seafarers
    • Security
    NTSB Investigation

    Lessons learned: Loss of redundancy in diving bell launch and recovery PLC system

    Lessons learned: Steam and water released from filter

    Lessons learned: Disposable vape self-ignition

    maritime mental health

    Seafarers Happiness Index 2023Q1: Seafarers are unsatisfied with onboard fitness and health benefits

    Cargo fires: An issue that needs to be tackled

    Cargo fires: An issue that needs to be tackled

  • SEAFiT
    • All
    • Intellectual
    • Mental
    • Physical
    • Social
    • Spiritual
    Book Review: A role model for ship managers

    Book review: The politics of sustainability in the Arctic

    contemplation as a spiritual practice

    Contemplation: Directing the mind towards what’s important

    power of hug

    The power of hugging: How it affects our health

    Impostor Syndrome

    Mental Health Focus: How to deal with Impostor Syndrome

  • Green
    • All
    • Arctic
    • Ballast
    • Emissions
    • Fuels
    • Green Shipping
    • Pollution
    • Ship Recycling
    • Technology
    HHI wins AiP from KR for tank shape optimized for liquefied fuels

    HHI wins AiP from KR for tank shape optimized for liquefied fuels

    Four major parties to assess emissions throughout the life cycle of LNG carrier

    Four major parties to assess emissions throughout the life cycle of LNG carrier

    Port of Klaipeda and Proman shake hands on methanol bunkering

    Port of Klaipeda and Proman shake hands on methanol bunkering

    USA law

    U.S. Senators introduce legislation to eliminate in-port ship emissions

  • Smart
    • All
    • Connectivity
    • Cyber Security
    • E-navigation
    • Energy Efficiency
    • Maritime Software
    • Smart
    Cyber security: What it means for the shipping industry

    Cyber security: What it means for the shipping industry

    DNV Maritime Cyber Priority 2023: Shipping faces 5 major cyber security challenges

    DNV Maritime Cyber Priority 2023: Shipping faces 5 major cyber security challenges

    New Mission to Seafarers app strengthens welfare support

    New Mission to Seafarers app strengthens welfare support

    ABS awards AIP to SHI for structural health monitoring system

    ABS awards AIP to SHI for structural health monitoring system

  • Risk
    • All
    • CIC
    • Detentions
    • Fines
    • PSC Case Studies
    • PSC Focus
    • Vetting
    AMSA bans second vessel in a week

    AMSA bans second vessel in a week

    Ship detentions in Paris MoU in February 2021

    AMSA bans bulk carrier Babuza Wisdom for 90 days

    tanker arrested in singapore

    AMSA convicts master and company after pilot ladder injury

    amsa planned maintenance fic

    OCIMF Annual Report 2023: Key amendments and additions under SIRE 2.0

  • Others
    • All
    • Diversity in shipping
    • Maritime Knowledge
    • Offshore
    • Ports
    • Reports
    • Shipping
    • Sustainability
    • Videos
    baltic exchange

    Baltic Exchange: Maritime market highlights 5 – 9 June

    Port of Klaipeda and Proman shake hands on methanol bunkering

    Port of Klaipeda and Proman shake hands on methanol bunkering

    StenaRoRo’s ESG reporting making leaps due to Mercy Ships partnership

    StenaRoRo’s ESG reporting making leaps due to Mercy Ships partnership

    IWSA opens voting for “Wind Ship – the Future” poster design contest

    IWSA opens voting for “Wind Ship – the Future” poster design contest

  • Columns
    The tides are changing at Alang

    The tides are changing at Alang

    Ship recycling: A solution for plastic pollution and environmental protection

    Ship recycling: A solution for plastic pollution and environmental protection

    Back To The Future: How Rotor Sails are now a credible option to tackle climate challenge

    Back To The Future: How Rotor Sails are now a credible option to tackle climate challenge

    Trending Tags

    • Book Review
    • Career Paths
    • Industry Voices
    • Interviews
    • Maripedia
    • Maritime History
    • Resilience
    • Seafarers Stories
    • SeaSense
    • Wellness Corner
  • Events
  • Plus
No Result
View All Result
SAFETY4SEA

DNV: Energy Transition Outlook 2022

Rapid rise of renewables and electrification among long term trends of the energy transition

by The Editorial Team
October 13, 2022
in Green Shipping
energy transition outlook

Credit: Shutterstock

FacebookTwitterEmailLinkedin

The heightened focus on energy security and the rising cost of energy is reinforcing the difference in decarbonization speed between Europe and the rest of the world, according to the sixth edition of DNV’s Energy Transition Outlook.

Key highlights

  • Heightened focus on energy security and rising prices reinforcing decarbonization difference between Europe and the rest of the world;
  • Long term trends of the energy transition remain with rapid rise of renewables and growing electrification outweighing short term shocks;
  • Growing and greening of electricity production remains the driving force of the transition, with renewables accounting for 83% of electricity production by 2050;
  • One year on from UN Secretary General António Guterres’ Code Red warning on climate, emissions remain close to record highs putting world on course to warm 2.2°C by end of century.

Pathway to net zero emissions

The ETO forecast has 22 GtCO2 of annual emissions in 2050. Taking those emission to zero is not enough. Even if the world managed to bend the emissions trend to intersect zero at 2050, the 1.5°C carbon budget would be exhausted by 2029.

That means to return to a 1.5°C trajectory by 2100, the cumulative emissions between 2030 and 2050 – an ‘overshoot’ of some 300 GtCO2 — need to be removed in the second half of this century. This involves a massive carbon capture and sequestration effort.

RelatedNews

Seafarers Happiness Index 2023Q1: Seafarers are unsatisfied with onboard fitness and health benefits

Port of Klaipeda and Proman shake hands on methanol bunkering

Credit: DNV

While the majority (65%) of global warming is associated with CO2, other greenhouse gases, including methane, also need to be controlled. This involves, for example, changes in agriculture or aerosol use.

We do not model this but have chosen instead to use the IPCC scenarios in line with ‘very low’ and ‘low’ non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions estimates in our Pathway. The focus of our Pathway is on CO2 emissions associated with energy use

DNV stated.

Reaching net zero requires both a deceleration of emitting sources (coal, oil and gas) and an acceleration of low- or zero-emission technologies far beyond the ETO forecast. In addition, a very large scaling up of both carbon capture and storage (CCS), direct air capture (DAC) and nature-based solutions will be needed to remove the overshoot of emissions accumulated before 2050. Up to 7 GtCO2 per year must be removed through to 2100.

The cost of transition

The roll-out of renewables and grid build-outs will require very large upfront investment. Some therefore consider the transition to be ‘unaffordable’. But the results of the report suggest the opposite.

Namely, the forecast shows energy costs remaining stable and the share of energy expenditures in global GDP declining – from 3.4% in 2021 to 2.1% by mid-century.

The energy transition thus involves a substantial green prize, paying dividends to society for generations to come, even before factoring in the avoidance of incalculable costs associated with climate damage.

Credit: DNV

In fact, total world energy expenditure was USD 4.9trn in 2021. DNV further projects world energy expenditure to increase 26% to USD 6.2trn by 2050 – far below the 107% increase in global GDP over the same period.

The unit cost of energy will stay stable around 11-12 USD/GJ even with a fundamental reshuffling in energy expenditure by source. Between 2021 and 2050, fossil expenditure will reduce 40% in USD terms, non-fossil will triple, and grids will also almost triple.

However, while the transition is affordable globally, expenditures on the provision of energy are not market prices paid by the consumer, which include margins, taxes and/or subsidies – and upfront investments in end-use items like EVs and heat pumps.

Rise of renewables

According to the report, by 2050, the global power system will be 70% reliant on variable renewable energy sources (VRES). Coal and gas decline to 4% and 8% respectively of the power mix by 2050, when they are largely confined to providing flexibility and backup in a power system.

Specifically, until 2050, solar capacity increases 22-fold, wind capacity 9-fold, onshore wind 7-fold, and offshore wind 56-fold. Driving this are both plunging costs and a growing realization that VRES offer the cheapest and quickest route to both decarbonization and energy security.

The global weighted average levelized cost of energy (LCOE) for solar PV is currently around USD 50/MWh for solar and USD 120/MWh for solar+storage. This reduces to around USD 30/MWh by mid-century for solar PV, with individual projects well below USD 20/MWh.

Solar+storage cost is currently more than double that of solar PV without storage. Falling battery prices will narrow this gap to around 50% by mid-century.

Within a decade, about one fifth of all PV will be installed with dedicated storage, and by mid-century this rises to half. Global annual solar installations will reach some 550 GW per year of net capacity additions by 2040

DNV predicts.

Credit: DNV

Rapid electrification

High energy prices in 2022 have highlighted speed with which energy efficiency initiatives can significantly, and often permanently, ratchet down energy use and costs.

Removing inefficient and expensive energy practices is a defining feature of the energy transition over the next three decades and should be the top priority for individuals, companies, and governments focused on transitioning faster and on achieving energy security, ETO notes.

The report also added that after 2035, the reduction in energy intensity is stronger than the combined growth of population and GDP per capita. As a result, growth in global primary energy supply turns negative and primary energy supply peaks in the mid-2030s.

In addition, dapid electrification powered by renewables is the core driver of accelerating energy efficiency in the next three decades. The typical thermal efficiency for utility-scale electrical generators is some 30 to 40% for coal and oil-fired plants, and up to 60% for combined-cycle gas-fired plants.

In comparison, solar PV and wind generation are 100% efficient, and conversion losses as a percentage of input energy in power generation reduce from 51% in 2019 to 19% in 2050.

Credit: DNV

Fall of fossil fuels

  • Coal: Peaked at 8 Gt per year in 2014. Since then, total demand for coal has and will decline. The pandemic reduced coal demand by 7% in 2020. The demand rebound will not reach its previous peak, instead coal use will fall almost two-thirds from current levels by 2050.
  • Oil: In 2020, demand was 75 million barrels per day (Mb/d) excluding natural gas liquids and biofuels. We predict a peak in 2025, at 86 Mb/d, 15% above today’s level, before going into steady long-term decline. Demand will decrease slowly between 2025 and 2035, after which the decline becomes relatively steep, averag- ing -2.4% per year over the period 2035–2050. In 2050, expected global oil demand of 56 Mb/d (115 EJ) will be 45% lower than today.
  • Natural gas: Peaks in 2036 and slowly tapers off to end some 10% below today’s levels. It surpasses oil as the largest source of primary energy in the late 2040s. Gas has staying power owing to its diversity of uses — half of the demand for gas is as final energy in manufacturing, transport and buildings, and the other half through transformation for other final uses like electricity, petrochemicals and hydrogen production. Demand will vary considerably across regions: declining in OECD countries, growing in Greater China, but peaking there in the early 2030s, and tripling in the Indian subcontinent by 2050.
Credit: DNV

EXPLORE MORE AT dnv’S energy transition outlook

Tags: decarbonizationDNVelectrificationenergy transitiongreen practicesrenewable energyreportssustainability

Leave a Reply Cancel reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Recommended

NTSB Investigation

Lessons learned: Loss of redundancy in diving bell launch and recovery PLC system

June 9, 2023
baltic exchange

Baltic Exchange: Maritime market highlights 5 – 9 June

June 9, 2023
MARITIME EVENTS

Explore

  • Safety
  • SEAFiT
  • Green
  • Smart
  • Risk
  • Others
  • SAFETY4SEA Events
  • SAFETY4SEA Plus Subscription

Useful Links

  • About
  • Disclaimer
  • Editorial Policies
  • Advertising
  • Contact

© 2021 SAFETY4SEA

No Result
View All Result
  • Safety
    • Accidents
    • Alerts
    • Loss Prevention
    • Maritime Health
    • Regulation
    • Safety
    • Seafarers
    • Security
  • SEAFiT
    • Intellectual
    • Mental
    • Physical
    • Social
    • Spiritual
  • Green
    • Arctic
    • Ballast
    • Emissions
    • Fuels
    • Green Shipping
    • Pollution
    • Ship Recycling
    • Technology
  • Smart
    • Connectivity
    • Cyber Security
    • E-navigation
    • Energy Efficiency
    • Maritime Software
    • Smart
  • Risk
    • CIC
    • Detentions
    • Fines
    • PSC Case Studies
    • PSC Focus
    • Vetting
  • Others
    • Diversity in shipping
    • Maritime Knowledge
    • Offshore
    • Ports
    • Reports
    • Shipping
    • Sustainability
    • Videos
  • Columns
    • Opinions
    • Book Review
    • Career Paths
    • Industry Voices
    • Interviews
    • Maripedia
    • Maritime History
    • Resilience
    • Seafarers Stories
    • SeaSense
    • Wellness Corner
  • SAFETY4SEA Events
  • SAFETY4SEA Plus Subscription

© 2021 SAFETY4SEA

This website uses cookies. By continuing to use this website you are giving consent to cookies being used. Visit our Disclaimer.