DNV, in its latest white paper “Biofuels in shipping” has reported that the flexibility of biofuels can enable the shipping industry to accelerate its journey towards decarbonization while maintaining operational efficiency. However, current limitations in production capacity, may impact short-term supply and create stiff competition with other sectors.
According to DNV, the current global production capacity of sustainable biofuels is around 11 million tonnes of oil equivalent (Mtoe) per year and their database indicates that this could grow to 23 Mtoe per year by 2026.
Using stringent sustainability criteria, they estimate a sustainable and economical potential supply of biofuels of 500 –1 300 Mtoe per year by 2050. Therefore, a major build-up of sustainable biofuel production capacity is needed before the full biofuel potential is reached. If shipping was to decarbonize fully by 2050 primarily using biofuels, 250 Mtoe of sustainable biofuels would be needed annually.
Biofuels are poised to play a notable role in the decarbonization of shipping. Nevertheless, existing constraints on production capacity and competition from other sectors is likely to impact short-term supply to the maritime industry.
..said Eirik Ovrum, Principal Consultant in DNV Environment Advisor.
A major build-up of sustainable production capacity is needed before biofuels can reach their full potential and thus shipping’s goal of decarbonizing will need to be achieved in combination with energy efficiency measures as well as use of other low carbon fuels alternatives.
… he added.
As explained, regulatory developments, such as The EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS), present a strong incentive for embracing biofuels, making both biofuels and biomass highly sought after by various sectors as they strive for decarbonization. These resources are also currently being used in cooking, water and space heating, as well as timber and pulp and paper production posing some challenges to production capacity and availability.
According to DNV, a key reason why biofuels are seen as an attractive decarbonization pathway for vessels, is their ability to be used onboard existing vessels without modifications (i.e., dropin capability). This holds largely true for bio-methanol and bio-LNG if the correct equipment onboard is installed, since they have practically the same properties as their fossil-based counterparts.
For biodiesels and bioliquids used to replace fuel oils and distillates, on the other hand, drop-in capability depends on factors such as what feedstock the biofuel is based on, the production process, and the storage time. It is therefore important to valuate each fuel type on a case-by-case basis to make sure that the fuel specification and quality is compatible with the intended applications onboard the vessel. Otherwise, there is a risk of damage to equipment and loss of power onboard the vessel.
In conclusion, it is likely that biofuels can and will play a significant role in decarbonizing shipping. However, in the short-term, there are limitations on production capacity of advanced biofuels that may limit the supply to shipping, and a largescale building out of production capacity is needed. In the longer-term, depending on the extent to which other industries use bioenergy as a pathway to decarbonization, there could be limitations on the availability of sustainable biomass to produce marine biofuels.
As a result, biofuels are unlikely to be the only solution to shipping’s goal of transitioning to zero GHG emissions in the future.
