During the 2023 SAFETY4SEA Athens Forum, Dionysios Peppas, Director, Pantheon Tankers Management Ltd, focused on various thinking and perception patterns that influence decision making and shipboard life.
Identifying barriers
Often in order to learn from incidents we try to identify the barriers that failed. A barrier is the equipment, processes and behaviours we put together to prevent hazards from becoming incidents. Barriers need to stand in between and stand strong.
Indications that a barrier is about to fail or missing altogether is called a weak signal in maritime jargon. The aim is to always be vigilant and search for weak signals. However, there are obstacles to detecting weak signals.
In particular, there is a combined need to observe “differently” and in a specific way, as well as understand any conditions that might cloud judgement. One way to understand why an incident occurred, is to explore the thinking process that led to certain decisions being made.
Understanding thought: Fast and Slow thinking modes
Some years ago, Daniel Kahneman wrote the “Thinking Fast and Slow” book, in which he explored the way the human brain functions. The writer had earlier won a Nobel price for a paper that described the process of decision making in fast financial decisions.
In his book, Kahneman explains that the brain functions in two modes. There is the fast mode, which is based on intuition and instinct. It is quick and is used at a percentage of 95% in our daily lives to make decisions about simple matters. For example, fast thinking is used when reading the text on a billboard, driving a car on an empty road, or understanding simple sentences.
One the other hand, there is the second system which is based on slow, rational thinking. This mode of thinking is tiresome and takes time, but it is more reliable than fast thinking. Examples of fast thinking include conducting a mooring inspection, parking into a tight parking space, and directing attention to a specific person in a loud setting. Alas, when slow thinking is used for an extensive period, it makes an individual more gullible and ready to believe in ideas easily due to mental fatigue. This phenomenon is called “ego depletion”.
Ways that judgement is clouded
Cognitive biases can get in the way of subjective thinking and are often a result of the brain’s attempt to simplify information processing, decision-making, problem-solving, and judgment. Other ways that judgment is impacted include the following:
#1 Fault in statistics
It is well known that to be able to get a reliable statistical example, the sample must be substantial. Alas the situation is a bit different in daily reality. People tend to draw conclusions based on a small sample. For example, in a large fleet of 100 vessels if an incident occurs 3-4 times, it is labeled as a trend, while it is not actually based on a proper sample.
#2 The Halo Effect
The halo effect is a cognitive bias that influences how people perceive and evaluate others. It occurs when our perception of a person, based on one positive trait, influences our judgment of their other traits, leading to a general positive perception. This bias can impact various aspects of life, such as social interactions, hiring decisions, and product evaluations. It also works the other way when someone dislikes another person.
The term “halo” is used because the initial positive trait creates a sort of “halo” around the person, influencing how we view them holistically. An experienced captain, for instance, can wear such a halo, as the rest of the crew expects them to behave in a proper manner and make the right decisions. As a result, the expectation that a person is right can affect proper decision making.
#3 WYSIATI
“What You See Is All There Is” (WYSIATI), according to Daniel Kahneman, refers to the fact that people naturally rely on the information that is easily accessible in their minds, even if it represents only a small portion of the available information.
This can happen within deferent departments of a shipping company, with one department supporting their opinion and another department dismissing it as too expensive or ineffective. To overcome this phenomenon, a holistic approach is needed for all to see the bigger picture.
#4 Stereotyping
Stereotyping can take many forms. For example, there can be a stereotype that Greek captains are the best. So, when a captain is Greek, the crew is more likely to trust them. Apart from racial and ethnic stereotypes, there can also be stereotyping based on a person’s age. For instance, when the Electronic Chart Display and Information System (ECDIS) came out, people onboard trusted that junior officers would be better at handling it, due to their familiarity with video games.
#5 High definition
The human brain is more inclined to believe a message when it’s conveyed in high quality, high contrast formats i.e. a bright-dark blue for text against a white background. Taking an example from the maritime sector, well written oil record books (ORBs) usually make a good first impression on the inspector and errors might not draw their attention.
#6 Risk normalisation
People tend to readily accept unknown things because they seem familiar to them. A form of this is risk normalization, in the sense that people onboard get used to the risk that they face daily to the grade that it becomes normalised.
#7 Anchoring
Anchoring is the phenomenon where the initial value that is put in something has a strong influence on how much it’s worth in people’s minds. For instance, in a salary negotiation, the first number that is thrown on the table significantly impacts numbers during the rest of the process.
At a glance
Overall, by addressing these biases and understanding the intricacies of perception, the maritime sector can enhance safety and navigate challenges more effectively.
The views presented are only those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of SAFETY4SEA and are for information sharing and discussion purposes only.
Above article is a transcript from Dionysios Peppas’ presentation during the 2023 SAFETY4SEA Athens Forum with minor edits for clarification purposes.
Explore more by watching his video presentation here below